2008年12月15日

脆弱的亞洲

21世紀網
2008年12月12日
http://www.21cbh.com/content.asp?newsid=57993

2008年亞洲銀行競爭力排名研究報告 --- 受《21世紀經濟報道》委託,香港中文大學工商管理學院,上海交通大學經濟學院 聯合推出。
2007年是亞洲金融危機後的第十年。十一年之後的2008,亞洲國家又要面對這場源於美國的金融危機。

可以說,脆弱的亞洲一直沒有擺脫對美國經濟「母體式」的依賴。在此輪全球金融危機的傳導鏈條上,亞洲金融體系不得不感受由全球價值帶來的全球風險集中爆發的切膚之痛。亞洲國家被捲入一種「需求消失」的經濟衰退中。未來3年的經濟趨勢將會是一個巨大的謎團。亞洲是否會出現大規模失業、巨額財政赤字和外貿順差全無的尷尬境地,這些考驗即將來臨。

也有訪問者很樂觀地認為,亞洲銀行體系的流動性依舊充裕,信貸緊縮並非是銀行資金緊張,恰是反映銀行擔心形成壞賬累積而提高風險定價,這或許是值得讚賞的行為。幾十年的歷史證明,不惜一切代價打通「信貸鏈條」的做法將會產生不可控的效果。假設削弱銀行對風險的評估,督促其為了拯救經濟過度放款,最終將形成壞賬,壞賬會產生更多的貨幣滯留,使得未來貨幣空間變得更加狹窄。亞洲不能再用1998年的眼光來掃瞄2008年的危局,經濟學家與我們的銀行家或應該擺脫過去的成見,因為歷史從來不給「機械記憶者」以足夠的借鑒應對當下的危機。

正在發生的金融海嘯的影響力是難以消彌的,它不僅僅在於宏大敘事語境下的經濟預期,它甚至直接「衝擊了」我們一年一度報告撰寫及數據分析,令我們的研究團隊遇到了更多技術性的難題。

我們以歷史數據評價競爭力,而歷史已經改變!因而我們搜集了2008年半年報的數據以資調整;我們大規模調研訪談始於2008年7月中以後,等到數月後撰寫報告時,對話語境已經發生了重大變化,這幾乎令研究無所適從,最明顯的是,我們與幾位印度銀行家在8月份的對話,主題在於通貨膨脹,而現今,這已經不是問題的核心。

然而,一切的難題絲毫無損於我們對於「上百位銀行專家訪問結果」和「連續三年128家亞洲銀行量化指標體系」的珍視,我們只能倍加仔細和謙卑地去開展我們的研究。由此,《2008亞洲銀行競爭力排名研究報告》揭曉顯得意義不同尋常。

限於篇幅,今年的報告只刊登節選版本,完整版本將付印出版。

***** ***** *****

第一部分 金融危機中的亞洲國家及亞洲銀行
21世紀網

【一】亞洲國家:金融危機十年輪迴
1997年亞洲金融危機和2008年全球金融海嘯在起源和規模上都存在一定的差異,雖然這次的危機中心在美國,但隨著全球化進程的推進,以及各個國家和地區貿易和資本聯繫的日益緊密,近幾年發展迅速的亞洲國家,勢必也要受到一定的影響。

Ⅰ 危機傳導:兩條渠道三類國家
一位接受我們訪問的業內人士總結了在全球化背景下,一國經濟受美國經濟影響的兩個主要渠道:「一個渠道是,這個國家的金融機構直接參與(購買了)美國金融機構的次貸產品——或者是和次貸有關的產品,或者是金融機構銷售的產品,如CDO——這類機構會受到影響。但是這不是唯一的渠道。另一個渠道是,很多國家都對外部的需求依賴很大——像中國出口占GDP的30%多,日本的比例也很高——經濟疲軟,他們都會受到影響。雖然這些都是間接的受影響,(但)數量上的影響並不小於其他的方式。」

另一位專家從更加細分的角度,剖析了各個國家和地區層面上受這次金融危機影響的程度。

他將其分為三類:「一類是一些國家正經受的Credit Crunch,就是信貸危機,嚴重程度幾乎和美國一樣,比如歐洲的英國、德國、希臘,這些國家都在這個籃子裡,亞洲的日本、韓國也是;第二類是除了外部需求危機以外,也有信貸危機,但信貸危機的影響沒有美國那麼嚴重,像法國;第三類國家主要受外部需求的負面影響以及出口價格的影響,但信貸危機影響本身比較弱,沒有看到很強的信貸危機現象,中國和印度是代表。」

而對於亞洲金融業中心之一的中國香港,這位專家使用了同樣的方法判斷,除了企業受到需求降低的影響之外,香港也出現一點信貸危機的跡象,雖然現在並沒有膨脹,但是已經有一定的影響了,會衍生出來。

因此就亞洲國家來說,受此次金融危機影響的程度是不一樣的。

Ⅱ 亞洲囤積外儲「砝碼」的代價
聯合國的亞太社會與經濟委員會ESCAP(Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific)今年4月的一份報告1,探討了目前的金融危機對亞洲發展中國家的影響。該報告指出,大多數亞洲國家都有充足的外匯儲備以應對潛在的貨幣危機。同時,這些國家較高的儲蓄率,使得他們可以選擇擴大國內需求來帶動經濟發展,從而彌補因為發達國家的衰退而引發的出口損失。這兩點是亞洲國家處在危機中的有利因素,也是他們從1997年亞洲金融危機中學到的教訓。從目前的統計來看,亞洲國家直接持有的與次貸相關的證券化金融產品規模並不大。

但是,亞洲國家仍然需要擔心的是進一步的經濟失衡,特別是在1997年金融危機以後,大量國外投資湧進而導致的信用膨脹,以及資產價格和投資水平可能出現的泡沫。ESCAP估計,截至2007年,流入亞洲國家私人資本的60%左右,進入了這些國家和地區的權益類市場,這無疑增加了這些市場的波動性,也增加了這些國家經濟與其他地區的聯動效應。

ESCAP還指出,雖然亞洲國家在外匯儲備有了很大的提高,但其中近一半是通過國外資本的流入,而非國際貿易帶來的增加。由於流入的資本帶有很強的逐利性,意在從該國或地區的經濟增長中獲得更高收益,因此這種外匯儲備往往伴隨著很高的成本,。ESCAP估計,以亞洲國家目前資本流入規模和經濟發展情況,這種成本差不多每年達到500億美元。一方面要確保足夠的外匯儲備以防止貨幣危機的發生,另一方面又要為此支付高額的成本,很多亞洲國家,特別是東南亞國家的宏觀經濟政策為此陷入一種兩難境地。

大量外資湧入的另一個後果,就是推高了資產價格。包括印度尼西亞、日本、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國及中國香港都出現了一定程度的資產膨脹(一般定義為超過歷史趨勢水平的10%)。

更進一步,因為資產價格的強勁走勢,與很多與資產相關聯的信用產品的規模也開始擴大。以韓國為例,韓國2005年開始對家庭和個人的貸款明顯增加,貸款數量已經達到了可支配收入的140%,高於美國。韓國房地產相關貸款在銀行總貸款中的比重達47%,高於20世紀90年代日本房地產泡沫破裂前的23%到26%。同時,韓國有超過1700億美元的短期外債,並且存在小規模的經常性賬戶赤字,這一度將韓國推向危險的境地,嚴重阻礙了其經濟的增長。

Ⅲ 中國內地金融體系穩定性最強
因此,綜合上面的分析來看,隨著很多國家和地區開放程度的不斷提高,今後兩三年,大部分亞洲國家的GDP增長減緩是必然的。提及原因,正像前文我們所訪問的專家總結到的,亞洲國家主要從兩個途徑受到本次金融危機的較大影響。一是金融和資本市場,這包括直接或間接持有跟次貸相關的證券化金融產品,及本國或地區資產價格回落帶來的一系列的經濟問題。另一個是,美國以及同樣受到次貸牽連的歐洲國家增長放緩,導致亞洲國家出口量縮減,同時亞洲國家之間的貿易需求也將可能減少,從而使得危機向實體經濟蔓延,進而再影響到本國或地區的金融市場。

大多數受訪專家也表達了相同的觀點。他們認為,經濟增長的放緩對實體經濟的影響,現在已經慢慢體現了。美國很多進口商的訂單都明顯降低,對於以中國為代表的亞洲出口型國家來說,「沒有了這個出口,就是經濟下行,財務效應又沒有了,消費和投資都在下降。」

在本次亞洲銀行競爭力研究的訪談部分中,我們特別邀請受訪者對我們研究樣本中的亞洲10個國家和地區,面對此次危機時,金融體系的穩定性程度做出了他們主觀上的比較(結果見圖1)。大部分受訪者表達了他們的看法,認為在這次危機中,相對來講,中國內地是最為穩定的,中國香港、新加坡、日本、中國台灣和印度處在中等水平,而韓國和其他三個東南亞國家受到的影響更大一些。

【二】亞洲銀行業:整體盈利水平略有下降
亞洲的銀行在目前及今後一段時間裡需要面對的是全球信貸規模的緊縮,以及因金融危機而引起的實體經濟的下滑,這注定是一條不平坦的路。

今年,我們就金融危機對銀行不同業務的影響程度進行調查(圖2)。結果表明,大家的看法基本是一致而且是符合目前實際情況的。投資銀行業務受到的影響最大,其次是公司業務。零售業務和私人銀行業務受到的衝擊相對較輕。

今年亞洲銀行競爭力研究已有的數據表明,相對於2007年,中國香港、韓國、菲律賓等國家(地區)的銀行2008年上半年的平均盈利水平,已開始出現下降的趨勢。而且值得注意的是,在去除了某些銀行極端的收益率情況下(即以中位數代替平均數),馬來西亞和中國台灣也加入到了銀行收益開始下降的國家和地區中。中國內地則仍然保持了穩定的上升趨勢。從我們今年和去年研究的各家銀行樣本期間的平均回報率來看,中國香港、日本、韓國和泰國都呈現了負增長,而亞洲銀行的整體盈利水平也略有下降(具體比較可參見附表)。

Ⅰ 激進與保守:韓日案例正反面
具體從國家上看,韓國本身國內的信用擴張已經超過了歷史上的警戒線,其信用評級已經開始下降,該國銀行業可能在今後一段時間需要迎來更大的挑戰。同時,在訪談中談到「為什麼每次危機,韓國所受到的影響都特別大」的話題,專家和業內人士的意見也基本一致,「他(韓國)每次這樣還是外債的問題。」

一位熟悉韓國金融模式的專家仔細剖析了韓國出現問題的原因:「韓國的投資(額)很高,投資增長率很快,本國貨幣市場發展很充分,所以韓國出現了一種模式,叫批發融資。這實際上是,韓國的銀行去國際資本市場上借錢,再貸給別人。在國際資本市場上資金很充足的情況下——別人都要有儲蓄,找地方去投資——這個模式(是可行的);(但是,也)可能會出現問題,像現在的情況,當投資者或者是儲蓄者都比較小心,不敢隨便把錢借給金融機構的時候,韓國的金融模式就出現問題了。韓國金融機構從國際市場貸款給本國企業,是滿足中長期的投資(需求),但無法滿足短期的流動資金需求,國際資本市場一出問題,他(指韓國金融機構的貸款)就沒有辦法循環下去了,流動資金都會出現問題。」

而談到日本銀行發展的狀況時,有受訪者表示:「日本的銀行在這幾年做得不好,只不過他們從上次亞洲金融危機中積累了很多教訓,現在手裡積累了大量的現金,這為他們現在到處去收購提供了條件。正因為日本的銀行比較保守,所以本次金融危機中,他得到了很多的好處。」有受訪者表示贊同,「1997年金融危機把日本的銀行打得一塌糊塗了,他們整天搞兼併重組,原來那些名聲都沒有了。」

因為日本的會計年度比其他亞洲國家晚,我們尚未系統地獲得有關日本的銀行今年上半年的財務數據。但已有媒體報道稱,日本第二大銀行Mizuho Financial Group今年上半年的收益,從去年同期的3200多億日元下降到946億日元左右,降幅達到了驚人的71%,主要損失來自於貸款壞賬和證券化金融產品的投資2。日本的第一大銀行Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group也宣稱要融資近1萬億日元以充實其資本。由此可以看出,日本的銀行在次貸及按揭的證券化產品上存在的風險暴露可能並不小。

Ⅱ 港台銀行業:相對樂觀
此次危機中,大多數亞洲國家和地區的銀行最大的問題是,對與次貸相關的證券化金融產品的風險暴露,導致收益的大幅下滑。

印度的銀行總體穩健,但也不是非常樂觀。印度ICICI Bank 因此次危機,曝出了2.64億美元的損失。而SBI,Bank of India和Bank of Baroda等印度其他銀行公佈的風險敞口,也甚為可觀。

至於中國台灣,專家們則相對樂觀,因為當地金融機構可能參與國際化的程度不是很高,「台灣當地的貸款業務沒有很大的增長,我的主觀判斷是,台灣(受到)的相對影響不是很大。」

熟悉中國香港金融市場的人士也表示,香港也有所謂的按揭或借貸公司,類似於美國。「但香港的money lender進入按揭市場的很少,而且香港小,容易監控。美國太大了,很難監控。」所以他認為,從香港本身爆發出來的問題有限。

目前香港的問題主要是,當地金融機構涉足了危機相關的產品和交易,同時香港市場的全球化和自由化程度,也使得其股票市場對危機的反應比較明顯。有受訪者就表示:「香港是個比較自由的市場,資金能比較自由的進出。股市就像提款機,外部有問題的話,資金就會被抽出。而且香港很多銀行確實賣過一些投資性產品,(他們)以為是保本的,(但)肯定有問題。」同時,也有受訪者更加謹慎,稱香港目前暴露出的問題可能只是一個方面,更大的影響,「香港好像還沒有真正感受到」。因此,香港金融業及銀行業未來的狀況,仍需要高度關注。

Ⅲ 中國銀行業:與危機擦肩而過?
而對於中國內地的銀行業,我們的受訪者中,大多數還是表示了相對樂觀的觀點,「中國的銀行與這次危機是擦肩而過。」

一位受訪者在談到內地資產規模最大的銀行工商銀行時表示,「工行外匯資產占總資產的比例很小,在這方面受到的影響很有限。」這可能代表了目前大多數中國的銀行的現狀。就中國的銀行優勢來說,專家和業內人士認為,「內地銀行在融資方面,市場還是不錯的。總體上來說,金融風暴對中國內地銀行的影響肯定是有的,但不大。(內地銀行)總體業務都不錯,特別是頭半年的業績很不錯。」

中國的銀行業因為國內整體經濟環境的穩定,處在的位置相對有利,但是也存在不可忽視的問題。

有受訪者就提出,「(中國)房地產的貸款早已經縮得非常緊,中小企業從年初(在資金鏈上)就開始出問題,現在更緊」,這是需引起關注的重要方面。再者,次貸危機發生後,中國的銀行也出現了不少損失,雖然相對規模不大,但絕對數量也非常可觀。這包括之前持有的與次貸相關的結構化金融產品,和後來因持有雷曼兄弟債券而存在的較大風險敞口。

對於中國銀行業的未來,受訪者認為應該以更加謹慎的態度去對待,「如果持續降息,就會出現一個問題——銀行業的收入來源越來越少,因為存貸的息差在下降,投資的產品價格在下降,個人業務在下降,那麼銀行的收入增長就比較難。」因此,中國銀行業面對的挑戰非常艱巨。

對於整個亞洲銀行業來說,因為金融危機的爆發,而使得今年成為非常特殊而關鍵的一年。我們今年的研究也更加注重他們在危機中的狀況,將討論全球性的危機下各個國家和地區經濟發展及其銀行業出現的新問題、新情況、新特點。我們將呈現出,一個新的市場環境下,亞洲銀行競爭力的另一個側面。

2008年12月9日

Is Chavez an obstacle to the Venezuelan revolution?

Marcus Pabian
Direct Action
Issue 7, December 2008
Marcus Pabian is a member of the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the Australia-Venezuela Solidarity Network.
Despite Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez leading a popular socialist revolution in his country that has inspired millions beyond its borders, a range of people describing themselves as revolutionary socialists don’t accept that such a revolution is taking place and have declared Chavez incapable of leading such a revolution; that he is an obstacle to carrying through such a revolution.

Before examining their views, we should recall what has actually happened in Venezuela under Chavez’s leadership. On April 13, 2002, a workers’ and soldiers’ revolution won state power in Venezuela and restored Chavez as the country’s president, defeating a US-backed military coup led by Venezuela’s capitalist oligarchy and army high command that had been staged two days earlier. The coup was an attempt to stop the Chavez leadership taking control of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA out of the control of Venezuela’s capitalist oligarchy and the US oil corporations.

Despite the illusions Chavez had held up to then that he could pursue a “Third Way” between neoliberal capitalism and socialism, he had sought control over PDVSA in order to redirect the enormous export earnings of the company into meeting the needs of Venezuela’s workers and peasants. The coup shattered Chavez’s and his supporters’ illusions in the possibility of pursuing a “Third Way”. The political polarisation in Venezuelan society that his attempt to expropriate PDVSA provoked, culminating in the coup, also polarised the National Armed Forces of Venezuela (FAN). The top brass, drawn from wealthy families, had led the coup. But the majority of junior officers and soldiers, drawn from poor working class and peasant backgrounds, supported Chavez’s view that the country’s oil wealth should be used to meet the needs of the population as a whole, not just the capitalist elite. Rebel soldiers united with hundreds of thousands of the poor on the streets of every major city and rapidly smashed the coup regime.

In the months following the coup, the Chavez leadership purged the military of those who had supported the coup and were loyal to the interests of Venezuela’s capitalist oligarchy. This broke the core institution of the state power of the capitalist class and left the armed forces composed overwhelmingly of those who had toppled the coup out of loyalty to the fundamental interests of the working class and peasants. As a result, Chavez’s government could rely on the support of the armed forces as it confronted the economic power of the capitalist class and the old pro-capitalist civil service bureaucracy; it could now act as a working people’s government. The political revolution to transfer state power from the capitalist class to the working people had been fundamentally accomplished.

The reliability of this new state power to act in the interests of the working people was demonstrated a few months after the April revolution, when the capitalist oligarchy launched a “strike” within PDVSA. In December 2002 the top capitalist managers of PDVSA sabotaged the company, reducing oil production from 3 million barrels a day to 150,000, crippling oil income in an attempt to destabilise the revolutionary Chavez government by creating a sharp economic crisis. They were joined by 18,000 middle and lower managers and well-paid technicians. Local police forces still loyal to the capitalist oligarchy tried defending PDVSA installations against oil production workers who attempted to undo the sabotage but were quickly brushed aside by the armed forces.

Socialist revolution
By the end of January 2003 the Chavez government, relying on army officers and oil industry workers, had taken control of PDVSA, the single biggest section of the national economy. The 18,000 mangers and technicians involved in the sabotage were all sacked. Winning control of PDVSA ushered in the socialist revolution — the first step in building a socialist state that organises expropriated capitalist property into a centrally planned economy that can meet the needs of working people rather than capitalist profits.

Taking control of PDVSA transformed the reach of the Chavez government. PDVSA not only had massive revenues but its offices and staff provided the working people’s government with the equivalent of a civil service to administer government programs. The Chavez government could now bypass the resistance of the old civil service bureaucracy.

With revenue and administrative resources from PDVSA and the support of Cuba’s socialist government, enormous social gains have been made by working people — the eradication of illiteracy; a 49% reduction of those living in poverty and a 70% reduction of those living in severe poverty; a 63% reduction in unemployment; the highest minimum wage in Latin America; free education including at university and a doubling in the number of students; an expanded free health system with 10 times the number of primary health professionals and five times the number of clinics as before; improved nutrition levels through the setting up of 15,000 subsidised food markets; the planting of 33 million trees, reforesting 38,000 hectares of land. While many new public houses have been built, there are plans to end the housing shortage completely with the construction of 1.6 million new public housing units by 2016. These economic and social gains for working people demonstrate what can be achieved even in a short space of time with a socialist revolution that progressively takes charge of the economy.

Grassroots self-government is also in action and growing — the communal councils which each organise 200-400 families, number over 18,000. They bring direct democracy into daily life. They directly control their own budgets from a national fund, not local taxes.

Venezuela’s socialist revolution has expanded the centrally planned economy beyond PDVSA and the oil industry to other industries: Sidor, the largest steel mill in Latin America, the Alcasa aluminium company, the electricity companies, telecommunications company CANTV, three cement companies, and the second largest bank.

Still a ‘bourgeois state’?
Surprisingly, both the decisive turning points — the April revolution that won state power and the expropriation of PDVSA that began the socialist revolution — have been missed by a range of revolutionary socialists in the imperialist countries, leading them to conclude Chavez cannot lead the revolution they still think hasn’t begun. In September, for example, despite the expropriation of the Sidor steel mill just a few months earlier, International Viewpoint, the monthly journal of the Fourth International, an international organisation of revolutionary socialist parties, claimed that “the Venezuelan state is a bourgeois state”, i.e., that the capitalists are still the ruling class in Venezuela.

IV writer Fernando Estevan claimed that of all nationalisations by the Chavez government, none had transferred ownership from the capitalist oligarchy to the working class because the companies had been paid for and because the state power that now runs them was still “a bourgeois state”. Estevan conveniently misses the fact that PDVSA, formerly the most valuable possession of the capitalist oligarchy, was expropriated without any payment.

But there have been many other expropriations of capitalist property that have been paid for by the Chavez government. For the Fourth Internationalists, this form of nationalisation is proof that the Chavez government administers nationalised property for the capitalist class. This dogmatic conception of Estevan and his cothinkers in the FI to the real content of the nationalisations which blinds them makes them expropriations — they transfer ownership to a working people’s government, to a government that incorporates them into a plan of national production to meet the needs of working people rather than capitalist profit.

Under certain conditions, buying out the capitalists can be a form of expropriation of capitalist property by a revolutionary working people’s government. This was recognised by both Marx and Lenin. In Russia in April 1918, Lenin considered the need to expropriate, develop and centrally plan the economy as “the most difficult stages of transition” to socialism. In certain circumstances, he consider it better for a working people’s government to “buy from the bourgeoisie the land, factories, works and other means of production”, if, “the circumstances were such as to compel the capitalists to submit peacefully and to come over to socialism in a cultured and organised fashion”. Lenin observed that Marx had frequently remarked to Engels, “we could buy out the whole lot of them”.

Another measure taken by the Chavez government has also led Estevan and those who share his view to conclude that the Chavez government is not revolutionary — it encourages a transition from private capitalism to “state capitalism” to improve national production. On June 11, Chavez announced a plan to allocate $1 billion to increase production through joint ventures with capitalists in the oil, food and manufacturing industries as part of a national economic plan coordinated by the government that would target the needs of working people. This would achieve a further step towards the centrally planned economy at the heart of the socialist revolution.

Lenin, again writing in April 1918, also emphasised that a method of “compromise” and financial incentives should be used by the Russian working people’s government in order to draw capitalist business owners into forming joint ventures with the Soviet state as a step in the transition to socialism. This, Lenin argued, would allow national accounting and control of production, larger scale production, and give workers time to learn to organise such large-scale production and thus assure “the consolidation of socialism”. But those capitalists who choose not to come over to “state capitalism” peacefully were compelled to under pain of expropriation.

Similarly, the Chavez government has threatened, and carried out, expropriations of capitalist companies that reject the incentives and compromises offered and instead choose to sabotage such national production plans. A prime example is Sidor, which refused to produce steel pipes for the national plan, exporting them instead. Chavez warned Sidor’s owners in May 2007 to stop the exports or: “I would be obligated to nationalise it like I have done with CANTV”. Following Sidor’s refusal to comply, it was expropriated earlier this year by the Chavez government with the support of the Sidor workers.

Chavez also threatened the private banks in May last year. “The private bank has to give low-cost financing”, he warned, “and if they don’t want to do that then they can leave, or we will nationalise them, and I hope they understand this message.” The country’s second largest bank was nationalised this year.

Can Chavez lead the revolution?
For Estevan and those who share his views, Chavez’s call for joint ventures with capitalists aroused suspicion and surprise. In an article in the November issue of IV, he claimed the move was either “Keynesian” or “liberal”, a simple handout to the capitalists. Chavez’s actions are seen by IV’s Venezuela writer as deeply contradictory to a transition to socialism and therefore he concludes a transition to socialism would only come about if the workers become a force independent of Chavez’s decisions.

The International Marxist Tendency (IMT) led by British Trotskyist Alan Woods also concludes that the Chavez team cannot lead the transition to socialism, claiming there is an “absence of a firm proletarian revolutionary leadership armed with the scientific ideas of Marxism”. On January 11, Woods declared that Chavez lacked “the correct strategy and tactics” to make the transition to socialism because the conditions for “a victorious socialist revolution” were favourable but after “all the talk about socialism the fundamental tasks of the socialist revolution have not been carried out” by the Chavez leadership.

Woods claims both working class and capitalist forces are reflected “especially in the leadership” around Chavez, creating “constant vacillations and hesitations” by Chavez himself. Thus the IMT claim Chavez is swinging hopelessly between the demands of millions of workers, peasants and youth striving for socialism when his government does nationalise a company but then Chavez is accommodating to the influence of a pro-capitalist “right-wing” within the Bolivarian movement when he proposes joint ventures.

According to Woods, this “right-wing” favour slowing down the revolution (instead of nationalising everything immediately) and reaching agreement with the capitalist oligarchy (in joint ventures) and imperialism (joint ventures with First World corporations). Thus the IMT sees moves such as Chavez’s June 11 announcement of a fund for joint ventures between capitalist employers and the revolutionary government, not as a step toward a socialist planned economy, but as the retrograde influence over Chavez of the Bolivarian “right-wing”. Thus, in an August 2 article, Woods denounced Chavez’s June 11 call for joint ventures as the product of the Bolivarian “right-wing” of “reformists and Stalinists” trying “to create a national bourgeoisie with state money” by “throwing [pubic] money at private capitalists”.

The Bolshevik leaders of the Russian Revolution were also confronted with similar criticisms for pursuing joint ventures and “compromises” with the capitalists. As Lenin wrote in April 1918, when such joint ventures were proposed by the Bolsheviks as a means to peacefully advance the creation of a state-directed economy they infuriated the ultraleft wing of the Communists, who began “shouting hysterically, choking and shouting themselves hoarse, against the ‘compromise’ of the ‘Right Bolsheviks’.”

Instead of the method of “compromise” with the “cultured capitalists who accept state capitalism” — capitalism directed and controlled by the workers’ state — the “left Communists” declared: “The systematic use of the remaining means of production is conceivable only if a most determined policy of socialisation is pursued”. The Bolsheviks, they claimed, should not “capitulate to the bourgeoisie and its petty-bourgeois intellectualist servitors, but [act] to rout the bourgeoisie and to put down sabotage completely”.

Woods makes a similar proposal to the Russian “left-wing” Communists. He argues that it would have been possible immediately following the presidential election of 2006 for Chavez “to introduce an Enabling Act in the National Assembly to nationalise the land, the banks and the key industries under workers’ control and management”.

Contrary to Woods’ claim, Chavez has not sought a political compromise with the “national bourgeoisie”, an alliance aimed at preserving capitalism. Rather, the Chavez government is seeking economic cooperation from “the national bourgeoisie”, as Chavez pointed out in a January speech, to allow the time needed to strengthen “the people’s organisation and the people’s power” and then, “we’ll accelerate the march” to socialism.

Unlike the impatient Woods, who would like Chavez to simply decree the immediate expropriation of all capitalist businesses “under workers’ control”, Chavez understands that socialism cannot come about by government decree. It requires the prior development of the class consciousness, political organisation and acquisition of administrative skills by the working class. Thus Chavez is focussed on building the United Socialist Party of Venezuela into the mass political force necessary to carry through the transition to socialism — a mass revolutionary socialist party. On the economic plane, the Chavez leadership is following many of the steps that Lenin advocated after the Bolshevik-led workers took political power in November 1917, steps toward the building up of a workers’ centralised administration of economic resources and activity, including joint ventures with capitalists who submit peacefully to a national economic plan serving working people’s interests.

In his September IV article Estevan wrote that 12 days after Chavez’s June 11 offer to the capitalists, “when the most radical wing was wondering about the logic of such economic reforms, Chavez caught everyone on the back foot by announcing the nationalization of the sugar factory of Cumanacoa in the state of Sucre, in the framework of a plan for the development of endogenous production of sugar cane’’. Estevan added that this “nationalization followed those of CANTV (telephony) and Corpoelec (electricity) which took place in July 2007, of Sidor, the country’s principal steel-works in April 2008, [and] of the cement industry, including the French company Lafarge and the Mexican Cemex, in May 2008. Lastly, this nationalization preceded the announcement of the nationalization, in July 2008, of Banco de Venezuela, a subsidiary of the Santander group, which was the second-biggest private bank in the country, with funds of more than 500 million euros.”

Given the past record of the Chavez leadership of expropriating capitalist property, why did the Chavez government’s nationalizations of the Cumanacoa sugar factory and Banco de Venezuela catch “everyone” of the Trotskyists “on the back foot”? In his September IV article, Estevan argued that while the nationalisations carried out by the Chavez government “contribute to giving weight to the state productive and financial apparatus, to the detriment of the private sector … the Venezuelan state is a bourgeois state, with many elements of state capitalism”. If you think that Chavez heads a “bourgeois state”, a coercive apparatus that defends capitalist property and capitalist profits at the expense of the interests of the working people of Venezuela, then you will continually be caught “on the back foot” by the actions of the Chavez leadership team. If you stick to such a view, you will fail to see that they are genuinely revolutionary socialists who are consciously leading the socialist revolution in Venezuela.

How competition produces monopoly

Allen Myers
Direct Action
Issue 7, December 2008

In its earliest stages, capitalism necessarily began from what was provided by the feudal economy that preceded it. This was primarily an extremely low level of productivity, based mostly on very simple tools and producers (peasants and artisans) with few skills.

Because capitalism is production for profit by selling to an anonymous market, unlike feudalism, it sought constantly to increase production. Initially this was accomplished primarily through increasing the division of labour. Production of a commodity that previously had been made by a single person was divided into a series of tasks, each performed by a different individual. In his Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, the English political economist Adam Smith illustrated the enormous increase in productivity brought about by the division of labour in pin manufacture: a single individual, Smith wrote, could not make 20 pins in a day, but 10 specialised workers cooperating through a division of labour could make 48,000 in one day.

As the division of labour spread and intensified within the production processes of more and more commodities, the tasks performed by each individual worker became more and more simplified and standardised. This simplification made it easy to develop machinery that could do part or all of what had previously been done by a worker.

For capitalists, replacing workers with machinery reduced costs and increased output. Competition among capitalists therefore made it compulsory for every capitalist to introduce the latest machinery; if they didn’t, they would be undersold by those capitalists who did. Most of the profits of a business were ploughed back in to it, to get newer and better machinery to keep up with the competition. Capitalist development therefore brought about a huge increase in the productivity of human labour.

But, less obviously, capitalism was also undermining this process. Over time, competition eliminated the less successful capitalists and increased the size and economic power of the companies that survived. Towards the end of the 19th century, major parts of the economies of the most advanced capitalist countries came to be controlled by a few firms, or only one. Increasingly, monopolies dominated capitalist economies.

Monopolies are usually hugely profitable. But their profits depend on ending greatly increased productivity. Monopolies gain their super-profits by restricting production, making the supply of their product fall below the demand. Because the product is scarce, its price and the monopoly’s profits go up. If a monopoly increased production, its product would become less scarce, and its monopoly profits would decline. So while a monopoly still seeks technological improvements that reduce its costs, it has less and less motive to invest in more productive equipment.

Of course, the power of a monopoly to limit production is not absolute. There is always at least a theoretical possibility that if a monopoly gets too far behind the times technologically, some other capitalist with new technology might break into the industry. In particular, there is a danger of some foreign capitalist, perhaps with support and subsidies from its government, breaking the monopoly.

It is also the case that monopolies can make things uncomfortable not only for ordinary people but also for capitalists operating in other areas, if the product of the monopoly is important to their own operations. For example, the antitrust laws passed in the United States in the late 19th and early 20th century were not totally opposed by all capitalists, some of whom were worried about being held to ransom by the Rockefeller family’s Standard Oil monopoly (which was partially broken up in 1911 by a Supreme Court ruling). Similarly, throughout most of the 20th century, developed capitalist countries that had a steel industry did everything they possibly could to maintain it, because steel was so fundamental to production of military equipment, and no country wanted to be left in a situation where it relied on a potential enemy (which was any other country) for its military production.

Still, there is an inherent tendency in capitalist competition to restrict the growth of productivity and create monopolies. And the super-profits of monopolies create a further dilemma: how to reinvest them. These profits cannot be reinvested in the industry that created them, because that would undermine further super-profits. This is the fundamental economic source of imperialism, which will be the topic of the next article in this series.

Are we headed for another Great Depression?

Doug Lorimer
Direct Action
Issue7, December 2008

“The severity of this economic contraction is a once-in-a-hundred-year phenomenon. It really does compare in severity to the Depression of the late 1920s and through the ’30s”, Donald Brean, a professor of finance and economics at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, told the November 11 London Financial Times.

Addressing his company’s annual banking and financial services conference, Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain said on November 11 that the global economy is entering a slowdown of epic proportions comparable with the period after the 1929 Wall Street stock market crash. “This is not like 1987 or 1998 or 2001”, said Thain. “The contraction going on is bigger than that. We will in fact look back to the 1929 period to see the kind of slow-down we’re seeing now.”

US President George Bush told the G20 summit in Washington on November 15 that he had agreed to a US$700 billion rescue plan for US financial institutions only after being told by his Treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, that the US was at risk of falling into “a depression greater than the Great Depression” of the 1930s. Speaking at a November 26 reception at the Swedish embassy in Washington, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, a columnist for the New York Times, declared that the current banking crisis is “functionally similar to that of the Great Depression” and many symptoms were the same, including the “impotence” of monetary policy to remedy financial troubles.

The current economic crisis certainly surpasses any other experienced by the developed capitalist countries since the Great Depression of the 1930s. “It’s a perfect economic storm, which is a combination of an ordinary recession, housing collapse, the credit crisis and major asset deflation”, Barry Ritholtz, CEO of stock market trading software maker Fusion IQ, told journalists on November 20.

Massive government aid
On November 24 Bloomberg.com reported that the financial crisis had wiped out $23 trillion, or 38% of the stock market value of the world’s companies, and brought down three of the biggest Wall Street firms, as well as American International Group, the world’s biggest insurance company. It also reported that the “US government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday. The pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced in the nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial system after the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.

“The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion already tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response to an economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs the plan approved by lawmakers, the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years before the crisis.”

The next day, the US government announced a further $800 billion in loan programs, bringing its cumulative financial industry rescue initiatives to $8.5 trillion, equivalent to 60% of the total value of the US GDP last year. Most of the money, $5.5 trillion, comes from the US central bank, the Federal Reserve Board. About $1.1 trillion comes from the Treasury and the rest is commitments from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Housing Administration.

These massive loans, and the accompanying partial nationalisations of banks and other financial companies implemented by the US and other governments across the capitalist world, will probably ensure that the capitalist financial system does not experience a 1930s-style collapse, but at the cost of saddling the developed capitalist economies with an even more enormous amount of debt. This in turn will mean that the recovery from the present global economic recession, when it eventually comes, will be slow and anaemic.

The enormous government loans provided to the banks have been justified by the Bush administration as necessary to unfreeze an alleged complete lockdown in bank lending in the wake of the September 15 collapse of Lehman Brothers, Wall Street’s fourth largest investment bank. However, the November 17 Wall Street Journal reported that US banks “are lending at record levels. Their commercial and industrial loans, at $1.6 trillion in early November, were up 15 per cent from a year earlier and grew at a 25 per cent annual rate during the past three months, according to weekly Federal Reserve data. Home-equity loans, at $578 billion, were up 21 per cent from a year ago and grew at a 48 per cent annual rate in three months.”

Non-bank loans
What has frozen up is not ordinary bank lending, but the $10 trillion shadow banking system that has traded “securities” derived from loans made by non-bank financial firms, but backstopped by the commercial banks, for automobile, housing and commercial real estate purchases. As the WSJ noted, “Increasingly in the past decade, [these] loans were packaged into securities and sold to investors around the world — pension funds, endowments, mutual funds, hedge funds and others. Institutional investors gobbled up this and other kinds of credit that didn’t come via traditional commercial banks, such as junk bonds or commercial paper … But investor confidence in credit markets has been shattered, in part because many debt securities performed so much worse than their credit ratings suggested they would.”

According to data examined by the WSJ, “Issuance of asset-backed securities — instruments used to package credit-card and auto-loan debt during the boom — was down 79% in the year through October from last year, to $142 billion … In 2005 and 2006, investors snapped up more than a trillion dollars of these instruments. Junk-bond issuance was down 66% in the first 10 months of the year from the same period in 2007 …

“So too are bank loans to large corporate borrowers — the kinds of loans that typically get resold and packaged into securities. While overall banks’ loan books are growing, this kind of lending fell by 46% in the August-to-October period from the same period a year earlier.”

The global financial crisis was triggered by the deflation from late 2005 of the US housing market price bubble, which exposed the fact that many housing loans were “toxic”, i.e., had been fraudulently made to people who didn’t have the means to repay them.

Overproduction crisis
Underlying the crisis in the capitalist financial system is a long-term overproduction crisis in what is misleadingly called the “real economy” — the production for profit of goods and services. Markets for most goods and services are simply too saturated to provide opportunities for high profits to made through further big investments in their production. As a result, the super-rich families that own the big industrial corporations, banks and other financial businesses in the US and other developed capitalist countries have put more and more of their capital into financial markets, to reap higher speculative paper profits from these markets.

The crisis in the overproduction of goods and services is well illustrated by the huge levels of productive overcapacity in the automotive industry. A March 8, 2003, article in the Washington National Journal reported: “Vehicle sales are at near-record levels in the United States — 16.9 million in 2002 — but that is an illusory image of success. A rising portion of those sales comes from imports, which create no high-paying U.S. manufacturing jobs. Moreover, automakers’ unprecedented and unsustainable low-rate financing deals, which amount to a subsidy for every car sold, have been artificially sustaining new-car sales. A slowdown in sales would pose problems for the industry, because production overcapacity haunts both US and foreign producers.”

The article pointed out that automobile manufacturers “around the world have added about 19 million units in production capacity since 1990 and can now build about 77 million cars and light trucks per year, according to Autofacts, a PricewaterhouseCoopers subsidiary in Bloomfield Hills, Mich. But consumption of new vehicles this year is expected to total only about 56 million units. As a result, overcapacity in the auto industry is now about 27 percent worldwide. ‘At some point, something has to give,’ said David Snyder, director of business development for Ford.”

Indeed, beginning in 2005, “something” did give — the profitability and potential survival of the three major US automobile manufacturers. In 2005, General Motors, at that time the world’s biggest auto maker, recorded a loss of $10.6 billion. Ford lost $1 billion that same year. In 2006, GM lost $2 billion, Ford lost $12.7 billion and Chrysler lost $1.47 billion. Last year, GM lost a record $38.7 billion. Ford lost $2.57 billion and Chrysler lost $3 billion.

In the first nine months of this year, GM lost $21.2 billion, while Ford lost $8.7 billion. GM has announced that it would run out of cash before the end of the year. GM, Ford and Chrysler have sought a government loan of $25 billion simply, they claim, to be able to stay in business in 2009. Without it, they warn, 2.5-3 million US jobs in the automotive and related industries will be lost.

Union officials back CEOs
The Bush administration and a host of other US federal politicians have argued against granting such a loan. However, this is simply a ploy to give the executives of the Big Three US automakers and the pro-company officials of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union a weapon to blackmail auto workers into accepting plant closings, wage cuts and the slashing of health care and other benefits.

The November 21 Detroit Free Press reported that the UAW bureaucrats were secretly negotiating with the Big Three to revise current labour contracts in accordance with demands from both Democratic and Republican congressional leaders. Testifying alongside CEOs of the Big Three before the Senate banking committee on November 18, UAW president Ron Gettelfinger said: “Between 2005 and 2008 we have lost 47,000 workers at GM and we have virtually eliminated our jobs banks [which provide for laid-off auto workers to receive 95% of their weekly wages] at all three companies. We had to take the political heat for these kinds of decisions, but as a union leadership we are proud to work with these companies.”

We may not experience an economic crisis as devastating as the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment in the developed capitalist countries reached 25-30%. But the capitalists and their politicians will use the current global economic recession to deepen their neoliberal attacks on the livelihoods and social conditions of working people across the world. The only way for working people ultimately to defend themselves from this is to organise into a mass movement to take political power out of the hands of the capitalist financial oligarchy, establish a working people’s government and use it to reorganise the economy along socialist lines.

What the Obama victory shows

Barry Sheppard
Direct Action
Issue 7, December 2008


As has been widely noted, the election of an African-American as president of the United States is an historic event. This is true irrespective of the politics and perspectives of Barack Obama. That a black family will occupy the White House, which was built by black slaves, is a powerful symbol.

The four-hundred-year history of African-Americans in the United States spans the time of slavery, the Civil War and Radical Reconstruction, the reaction beginning in the 1870s that instituted the Jim Crow segregation system through terror, and the civil rights struggles of the 1950s and ‘60s that overthrew Jim Crow, up to the present.

There is no question that without the victory of the civil rights movement, which liberated the South from legal apartheid, and its effect throughout the North, no black person could have been elected to the US presidency. It was this victory that changed over time the way black Americans are viewed by whites, to the extent that tens of millions of whites felt able to vote a black person into the country’s highest public office.

On election night, when it was clear that Obama had won, there were celebrations among African-Americans everywhere. TV shots showed many in tears of joy. The following day, my next-door neighbour, who is black and somewhat conservative, greeted me with the Black Power fist salute, and said: “I never thought I would see this in my lifetime!”

It is always difficult to see underlying trends through the distorting lens of capitalist elections, especially in the US with its system of two openly capitalist parties holding nearly identical views. But I think certain things are discernable. The first is what I have already alluded to, the diminution of racist attitudes among many whites. Polls showed this was more pronounced among young whites. While Asians, Latinos and especially African-Americans (by 95%) voted for Obama, without making important inroads among whites he would have lost. The second is renewed confidence among black Americans that they can change things. Whether this manifests itself in new struggles in the months and years ahead remains to be seen.

It should be noted that while racism among whites has diminished, racism remains powerful, and racial oppression remains institutionalised throughout the country. Obama won 53% of the vote, smaller than would be expected given the low level of support to outgoing President George Bush’s discredited administration and the extent of Democratic Party victories in the congressional elections. Whites are increasingly polarised on race.

By institutionalised racial oppression, I mean the facts of housing and job discrimination, and the resulting disparities between blacks and whites in education, unemployment, life expectancy, average income and so forth. It is these sorts of issues a new black liberation movement would have to take up, issues which relate to the whole working class.

The third thing I think we should note in the election is the impact of the deepening economic downturn. It was this that swung many white workers, who never thought they would vote for a black person, to vote for Obama against Republican candidate John McCain. They hope that a Democrat will do better on the economy than Bush has. This factor, which only began to be reflected in polls at the end of the campaign, tipped the scales in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and the Southern states of Virginia and North Carolina, as well as others. High hopes have been raised among black, Latino, Asian and white workers that an Obama administration will do something to help them as the economy spirals downward.

The economic crisis and the Wall Street bank bailouts have enraged working people. It is a kind of primitive radicalisation, a new sense that something is very wrong with the system. But this is causing a sharp polarisation among whites, too. McCain tapped into this with his own denunciations of “Wall Street” and “the government” coupled with thinly disguised, but loud and shrill, appeals to racism.

That racism remains deep among many millions of whites has been reflected in expressions of deep anger that Obama was elected, some documented on mainstream TV. This is especially true in the South, but has manifested across the country. There have been “hundreds” of incidents of cross burnings, racial epithets scrawled on cars and homes, Black figures hung from nooses, and other incidents according the Southern Poverty Law Center, which tracks hate crimes, since the election.

Some of these included the admission by four North Carolina State University students that they spray-painted “let’s shoot that nigger in the head.” In a rural general store in Maine, a sign read “Osama Obama Shotgun Pool,” where people could make bets as to the day Obama would be killed (“Stabbing, shooting, roadside bombs, they all count”). Second graders on a school bus in Idaho chanted “assassinate Obama”.

Most incidents have occurred in the South, including one church marquee that denounced Obama as a “Muslim” who will install a “wicked” government. The South was governed by a wing of the Democratic Party, up until the mid-1960s, known as the “Dixiecrats”. They enforced the Jim Crow system and were part of Franklin Roosevelt’s coalition in the 1930s and ‘40s, supporting his “social-democratic” economic policies in return for his support of Jim Crow.

But when the national Democratic Party came out for civil rights legislation under the impact of the black movement in the mid-1960s, the Dixiecrats became Republicans. Many whites deeply resented that the federal government had “imposed” on them the dissolution of apartheid. Beginning with Richard Nixon in 1968, the Republicans launched their “Southern strategy” to appeal to white racists there, which helped them win national as well as state and local elections. The “Southern strategy” took some blows in this election, with Virginia and North Carolina defecting to Obama.

With the new confidence among blacks and other non-whites, in the context of the “primitive radicalisation” of tens of millions of workers including whites, I believe we are entering a new period. How long this gestation period lasts before we see new explosive struggles remains to be seen. It took from the stock market crash of 1929 until the first battles in 1934 before there was an upsurge of workers’ struggles in the 1930s.

We have seen one positive step forward in the context of a defeat registered in the election. Proposition 8, an amendment to the state constitution in California that took away the right to marry for gay men and lesbians that the California State Supreme Court had affirmed earlier in the year, passed by 52% in a referendum. But gays, lesbians and their supporters didn’t take this lying down. There were immediate militant demonstrations across the state, organised by amateurs through the internet. On November 15, there were some 300 demonstrations in cities in every state, often targeting the Mormon church which poured tens of millions into the effort to pass Proposition 8.

The effect of these mass actions was to cause a split in the Prop 8 forces between the openly anti-gay groups and the covert ones, who began to bleat that they were not anti-gay rights in general but only on this issue. (The “moderate” ads for Prop 8 appealed to fears that gays and lesbians seek to “convert” children to homosexuality.) Does this militant outpouring reflect a new mood of confidence that the powers that be can be opposed in a meaningful way? I hope so.

2008年12月3日

Thailand - A Second "Coup for the Rich"

Giles Ji Ungpakorn
December 02, 2008
Giles Ji Ungpakorn is a Thai socialist and a member of the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok. He is the author of the book "A Coup for the Rich - Thailand's Political Crisis", published in 2007.

http://www.pcpthai.org/autopagev3/show_page.php?group_id=1&auto_id=37&topic_id=807&topic_no=18&page=1&gaction=on
Today the Constitutional Courts dissolved the democratically elected governing party in Thailand for the second time, forcing the Government to resign. This follows the refusal of the Armed Forces and the Police to follow government instructions to clear the two international airports blocked by armed PAD Fascists. The Royalist alliance against the government are made up of the Fascist PAD, the Military, the Police, the Judiciary, the mainstream Media, the "Democrat Party", most middle class academics and The Queen. They are all behind this judicial coup. A leading "Democrat Party" MP is one of the leaders of the illegal blockade of the two airports. The Yellow-shirted PAD have "armed guards" which have repeatedly shot at opponents. They constantly use violence and now demand "joint patrols" with the Police. The PAD have constantly broken the law, and yet they are "untouchable". On the rare occasion when PAD leaders are forced to attend court, they are given bail and allowed to go back and commit the same crimes over and over again.

The majority of the Thai population, who are poor, face a Double Whammy. First, the elite Royalist are doing everything possible to take away their basic democratic rights. Secondly, mass job-losses are occurring among workers in the tourist industry as a result of the airport blockade. Jobs in agriculture and electronics are also affected and of course we are faced with the serious World Economic Crisis. The elites do not care if the Thai economy is trashed and Thailand returns to a poor Third World nation. In such nations the elites continue to live the same lives as the rich in the Developed World. The PAD protestors are middle-class extremists who do not have to go to work, hence their prolonged protests.

We are constantly told by the conservatives that the poor are "too stupid to deserve the right to vote". The army staged a coup in 2006 and re-wrote the Constitution in order to reduce the democratic space and also to absolve themselves of any wrong-doing. The electorate have repeatedly voted in overwhelming numbers for the government party, whether it be Thai Rak Thai or Peoples Power Party. Now Peoples Power politicians are moving to the new Pua Thai Party. Will fair election be held? Or will the elites engineer a "fix" to make sure that their people win?

What is the root cause of this crisis?
The root cause of this crisis is not the corruption of the Thaksin government in the past. It isn't about vote-buying, good governance, civil rights or the Rule of Law. Politicians of all parties, including the Democrats, are known to buy votes. The elites, whether Politicians, Civil Servants or Military, have a history of gross corruption. Even when they don't break the law, they have become rich on the backs of Thai workers and small farmers. The Democrat Party is stuffed with such millionaires.

Ironically, the Thai Rak Thai party was helping to reduce the importance of vote-buying because it was the first party in decades to have real policies which were beneficial to the poor. They introduced a universal health care scheme and Keynesian Village Funds. People voted on the basis of such policies. The Democrats and the conservative elites hate the alliance between Thaksin's business party and the poor. They hate the idea that a government was using public funds to improve the lives of the poor. This is why the anti-government alliance is against democracy. The PAD have suggested reducing the number of elected MPs and a recipe to do away with the principle of "one person one vote". So the root cause of the problem is the conservative elite's contempt for the poor and their contempt for democracy. They are prepared to break the law when it suits them.

What is the solution?
Business leaders and the Royalist elites are demanding an un-elected National Government. The Democrat Party leader has "volunteered" to be the Prime Minister! Such a National Government would complete the judicial coup for the rich. It would be a victory for the PAD and a defeat for the electorate.

The Red Shirts, who are organised by government politicians, are the only hope for Thai democracy. They have now become a genuine pro-democracy mass movement of the poor. This is what is meant by "Civil Society", not the PAD fascists. Thai academia fails to grasp this basic fact. But the Red Shirts are not a "pure force". Many have illusion is ex-Prime Minister Thaksin. They overlook his gross abuse of human rights in the South and the War on Drugs. But these human rights issues are also totally ignored by the PAD and their friends.

Throughout this 3 year crisis, the majority of the Thai NGO movement (especially the NGO-Coordinating Committee) has failed to support democracy. Many welcomed the 2006 military coup. Many supported the military Constitution. Now they are either silent or are echoing the demands of the Army Chief, who said last week that the government should resign. At no point have they attempted to build a pro-democracy social movement. Many believe that the poor are "uneducated and lack enough information to vote". The honourable examples are the Midnight University in Chiang-Mai, some sections of the labour movement, groups of new generation NGO activists and Turn Left.

The economic crisis
Millions of jobs are being destroyed by the World Economic Crisis and the unrest in Thai society. People are being driven back into poverty. Yet the Democrat Party, the Military, the conservative elites and the mainstream NGO movement do not have a clue or do not care one jot about the necessary policies to defend the living standards of the poor. They make chants about the King's Sufficiency Economy and the need for Fiscal Discipline. In other words, the poor must trim their spending and learn to live with their poverty while the rich continue to live in luxury.

We desperately need massive government spending on infrastructure, job protection and a serious expansion of welfare. Value Added Tax should be reduced or abolished and higher direct taxes should be levied on all the rich elites without any exceptions. The bloated military budget should be cut. Wages should be raised among workers. Poor farmers should be protected. This will only happen in a climate of genuine democracy. This is why we must oppose this second "Coup for the Rich".

2008年11月26日

晚期資本主義時代的新基本矛盾

曼德爾
1992


美國貿易赤字升到138億元的消息,觸發華爾街股市在4月14日再暴跌101點。自從去年10月股市崩潰以來,即使是金融市場的微小波動,也足以激起人們拿1929至30年的情況作比較。

但即使美元繼續下跌、銀行倒閉、債務達到天文數字、生產過剩和失業嚴重,資產階級評論家仍堅持稱在國際商業的「真實」世界內,一切良好。真正的情況是怎樣的呢?只是「紙上的危機」,與實際工業生產和增長沒有關係嗎?本文描述現時資本主義的危機,指出所有目前的經濟指標,都顯示在最近將來會出現普遍的國際性衰退。

國際資本主義經濟在86年上半年經歷了小型衰退,除了英國之外。在87年1月,西德的生產比一年前下降了3%。美國則下降1%。但這次衰退並沒有加深。86年底的生產又再陸續上升,並持續到87年底(見表一

表一 1890-1986年原料價格指數

加拿大

+8.8%

11月至11月)

法国

+4.0%

11月至11月)

西德

+2.0%

12月至12月)

意大利

+3.6%

10月至10月)

日本

+8.6%

12月至12月)

西班牙

+8.9%

11月至11月)

英国

+4.9%

12月至12月)

美国

+5.1%

12月至12月)

只因為裡根政府繼續推行凱因斯政策,推行龐大的預算赤字,才制止了86年的小型衰退。它將更多商品從日本、西德、南朝鮮、台灣、巴西等國家及地區吸收到美國國內市場,亦因此令美國貿易赤字惡化,令美元加劇下跌。這也解釋了股市、地產、藝術品的瘋狂投機。

股市、地產瘋狂投機的原因
87年10月19日的股市崩潰,標誌著這個趨勢的轉折點。它預示了普遍衰退的來臨,越延遲越嚴重。

股市崩潰的直接原因是87年全年的投機,亦即是沒有投入生產的金融資本過剩。龐大的資金尋找資產出路。由於原料相對過剩,價錢很低,所以引不起投機者的興趣。其他的「投資」便被投機者搶購,令價格飛漲。

美國紐約道瓊斯指數從84年初800點,升到87年3月的2400點,到8月更高達2700點。英國金融時報指數從82年底的400點升到87年3月的1500點。日本股票也從84年初的800點水平,升到87年3月的1900點水平。對美國和較少程度上對日本和英國股票的國際需求,是股價飛漲的重要因素之一。87年上半年,外國購買了超過180億美元的美國股票,包括來自日本的75億美元、英國40億、法國18億、拉丁美洲接近10億。股價飛漲,股票的息率卻低得可憐。日本股票年息低至1.5%;美國股票年息不到2.5%,美國的股息扣除通貨膨脹率後,比日本的更低。在這些情況下,離算賬的日子已不遠了。

在巴黎、倫敦、紐約等地已很瘋狂的地產投機,在東京更為驚人:新宿區在兩年內從每平方公尺24萬港幣漲至60萬港幣,銀座區更達到177萬港元一平方公尺!120平方公尺的住宅月租達5萬港元!銀行貸款有10%是借給地產的。

銀行資金的兩個結構性因素,推動了這種狂熱。首先,金融交易額的異常的增加(全球四個主要外匯市場的全年交易額達到60萬億美元,但全球貿易額每年只是2萬億美元。因此,絕大部份的外匯交易是投機性的),導致財務經理的非專業化、無能和犯錯,其年薪卻高達數百萬美元。此外,不擇手段迅速發財的意識和道德觀,推動大規模的欺詐,例如美國的內幕交易案;欺詐又刺激投機,反過來又刺激更多欺詐和罪惡。

87年的瘋狂股市和地產投機,主要是由於資本主義世界的資金過剩,後者卻根源於更深刻的結構性原因:標誌著從70年代開始的「衰退長波」的不斷的資本過度積累。過度的積累,表示每年利潤所形成的資本不再找到能夠保證取得平均利潤的投資機會。這些資本不再作生產性投資,助長經濟的不景氣,特別是就業人數的下降,轉過來又加劇資本的過度積累,成為游資,走向投機。

投機的基本原因是商品生產過剩和剩餘生產能力,它們阻礙生產性投資。即使是在79年的工業週期的高點,美國平均的過剩生產能力也高達25%。從79年到84、85年的另一個高點,過剩生產能力增加到33%。在82年的衰退期間,過剩生產能力更高達41%。

這個情況解釋了金融投機活動並不限於純粹的投機者;龐大的工業托拉斯也普遍參與投機。尤其是在日本,從83年到87年,工業企業的股市交易增加5倍有多,甚至主要的跨國公司的利潤也有不少部份來自金融活動,例如日立的比例是45%,信興電業60%。但從這點作結論,說帝國主義國家出現「非工業化」,尚言之過早。從這意義看,股災客觀上開始令資產階級重新調配,不利於銀行和純金融部門而有利於傳統的工業金融資本。

股災的連鎖打擊
資本主義的鎖鏈首先在最弱的環節——股市——斷裂。這個斷裂差不多自動導致其他斷裂。目前最受威脅的是經紀行和其他財務公司;較弱的銀行;國家的資金周轉(不僅是欠債較多的第三世界國家);一些國家的社會保障制度;以及一些受重創的跨國公司。所有這些危機的連鎖反應,令整個國際信貸和貨幣制度崩潰的危機增加。

不少主要經紀行在股災中損失數千萬美元。很多銀行被股災和長期不景氣(例如農業危機、油價下跌、第三世界的壞賬等)嚴重打擊。在美國,87年有200家銀行倒閉;儲蓄銀行普遍虧損,估計總數達45億美元;86年的奧克拉荷馬第一國民銀行的倒閉,是74年以來最大的銀行倒閉。

比這些中型銀行的情況更為嚴重的是美國的主要銀行之一——曾經是全球最大的「美國銀行」的困境,它要靠日本資本大規模援助才挽救過來。

美國銀行系統的困難比其他國家更為人所知,但其他帝國主義國家的銀行的問題也逐漸洩露出來。加拿大6家主要銀行之中,有5家是虧蝕的。瑞典三大主要銀行在股災中損失超過1億美元,挪威的主要銀行更損失2億美元。英國米特蘭銀行87年虧損估計達9億美元,要靠香港匯豐銀行收購來渡過難關。

澳洲股災對非金融公司的打擊最大。三個最大的托拉斯企業受損超過5億美元。雖然這只是賬面上的損失。但當這些公司的資產值下降時,它們的借款能力便相應減少,影響投資和其他活動。澳洲首富許雅葛的企業的價值,在幾天之內從57億美元跌至12億美元。

第三世界國家無力償還的債務,構成這幅灰暗的圖畫。這些國家的債據在市場上正以五折的價格出讓。如果這些債據都只值五折,美國大通銀行便會失去一半資產,化學銀行會失去全部資產。此外,美國各大銀行借作收購行動等的高風險的貸款,佔了銀行很高資產的比例,例如占法爾高銀行超過100%的資產、英國銀行71%、化學銀行45%、大通銀行21%、萬國寶通銀行20%。

股市的崩潰是由美國利率增加而觸發的;七大國羅浮宮協議加息的目的是阻止美元下跌。利率增加幾乎一定導致股價下跌,因為股票價格客觀上是以股票利息與利率作比較、競爭。但股價下跌的幅度與利率的增加完全不成比例:華爾街在股災後的最低點與87年最高點比較,跌了28%,倫敦跌了33%,西德35%,澳洲41%,香港45%。股市崩潰當日,紐約股票市場差點解體。

美國和日本政府立即大規模介入,降低利率,增加貨幣供應,以避免經紀行和財務機構因現金周轉問題而被迫拋售股票。

兩難的挽救措施
但在試圖挽救危機時,美國政府卻同時加劇了結構性的金融危機。要填補美國龐大貿易赤字,需要外國資金大量和不斷湧入。由於美國匯率下跌和通貨膨脹率較外國高,外國資本家更加不願借錢給美國,除非美國利率在8厘至9厘以上。如果資金停止注入美國,美國便不能支付外債和短期商業債務和票據。事實上,美國的外匯儲備已不足以支付每年1500億美元的貿易赤字。

因此,我們正目睹一場巨大賭博,兩方面的參加者都面對兩難局面。美國繼續打出令美元下跌的牌,以重新取得貿易優勢,刺激出口,減少進口,因此會促成日本、西德、南朝鮮、台灣、巴西等國家及地區的衰退;但如果因此而造成美元崩潰,在整個資本主義經濟內造成極嚴重的金融和經濟危機、通貨膨脹和美國出口下跌,則美國經濟亦會受嚴重衰退打擊。如果美國以提高利率來穩定美元,卻會立即觸發國內衰退。

另一方面,假如西德和日本要保衛美元匯率(亦保衛本國貨幣的穩定性),只有大規模增加購買美元,而買來的美元卻越來越貶值,導致重大損失。日本估計擁有的2000億美元資產,一年內貶值一半。但這些國家讓美元自由下跌,它們的貨品便會不夠受美國貨競爭,加劇出口的下降,導致衰退,同時它們現有的美元資產便會更貶值。

總衰退危機加深
87年10月19日以來的連鎖反應的危機——股市危機、財務公司危機、銀行危機、美元危機、國際貨幣制度的機能失調、第二次股市崩潰的威脅——加劇了資本主義經濟在88年走向總衰退的傾向。

事實上,一些經濟學者說衰退在美國已經開始,因為連續7個月的「週期指標」已指向下跌。汽車銷量在87年已下跌15%;新建樓宇的數目下降;工業生產即使未下跌,但不少產品已變為存貨;零售水平也在下降。

有經濟學者指出美國的「廉價金錢」和低利率政策的不良影響:會導致不斷的貨幣和金融市場危機,最後會導致利率提升到觸發衰退的水平。1月25日的《國際先鋒論壇報》一篇文章標題是《華爾街等待衰退的來臨》,開始便指出問題不是衰退是否來臨,而是什麼時候來;它說,有些觀察家認為是89年而不是88年。

87年底,33名著名資本主義經濟學家發表聲明,提議主要資本主義國家統治者聯合行動,以避免嚴重的經濟危機。他們首先呼籲美國實行緊縮政策,消減國內消費,消除貿易赤字和預算赤字。他們卻似乎沒有預見到這個政策會大大增加美國的失業,短期內造成美國衰退。

最樂觀的經濟學者希望美國經濟能矇混過關,悲觀的則預測嚴重的衰退。基本的原因,明顯地不是由於股市的崩潰或貨幣危機,而是生產能力的增長(逐漸以機器代替活的勞動)與市場(「最終消費者」的購買力)的相對停滯兩者之間的不平衡。它導致平均利潤率下降和資本過度積累。對債務的停頓和瘋狂的投機,加劇這些矛盾,加強走下坡的動力。

在股災之後,收購行動仍然繼續,甚至受到低股價的鼓勵。銀行繼續毫無警戒地向收購行動提供巨額貸款,而不理會以往的教訓。第二次股市崩潰的陰影已隱現。它會否在東京開始呢?不少啟示指出這個可能性。

日本經濟危機四伏
日本股市很脆弱,因為股票價格與利息的比例高得不合理。在上次股災中,日本只是下跌10%左右,並沒有對股價作適當調整。

此外,日本出口數量正在收縮,因為日元價高、美元價跌和南朝鮮、台灣和香港的工業有更大的競爭。日本資產階級正嘗試加強資本輸出和擴充國內市場,特別是房屋市場,以補償出口的下跌。為了避免企業利潤減少,擴充國內市場的做法首先是增加公共開支,即增加已過分膨脹的公共債務。日本的公共債務其實相對地比美國的還大,86年已達到國民總產值的90.9%,而美國是52.4%。美國的預算赤字是國民總產值的3.4%,日本達到4.2%。這個因素加劇了日本經濟現時的脆弱性。

這問題更因為日本工業在世界市場上的優勢已停滯或受損而變得更嚴重。日本汽車占世界出口的比例從80年開始不再上升,甚至稍為下降。彩色電視機出口在84年見頂。從現在到90年,製造業和煤礦業受國外競爭打擊,將會消減9萬個職位。日本整套工廠的出口,從82年到86年下降了76%。

令日本資本主義憂慮的,是日本的活動重心急劇轉到「紙面上的經濟」。在87年,日本成為世界最大的資本輸出國,但超過一半的輸出集中在金融業和地產上。現時主要支撐日本經濟上揚的部門,是化學品、房屋建築、廣告和「休閒工業」。

美國衰失支配地位
美元的下跌加劇了美國的金融至尊地位的下降。世界十大銀行主要是日本資本的,美國只有兩家。美國已在國際上成為負債國,它的外債今天已達到5000億美元,而且以每年1000到1500億的可怕速度增加,在幾年內,不難超過第三世界國家負債的總和。

在美國喪失貨幣和金融支配地位的背後,是美國工業和科技支配地位明顯地急劇地下降。美國占世界出口的比例從81年的20%跌到86年的13.8%;同時,進口占美國國內市場的比例急劇上升,較突出的有:鋼鐵占15.9%、鋁22.7%、電子零件18.1%、信息技術(電腦等)18.7%、機械工具40%、紡織機器48.8%、鞋62.5%、電視機和收音機63.8%(以上為86年數字)。

美國帝國主義當然不會接受「非工業化」的。依賴進口鞋可以忍受,但依賴重要核子飛彈或電子零件是不可忍的,這正是美國政府否決日本富士收購美國快捷半導體托拉斯,以及提供巨額政府津貼以發展半導體技術的原因。但美國的地位已嚴重受損。例如全球6個主要半導體生產者之中,日本的NEC、日立和東芝佔了頭三名,美國合資的摩托羅拉排第四,美國的德州儀器排第五。在電訊工業中,美國只佔全球十大企業的兩家半。在飛機工業,美國波音公司受到歐洲的空中巴士公司重大挑戰。

美國帝國主義要求「重新工業化」,特別是希望藉美元下跌幫助出口,其背後原因是生產性投資嚴重缺乏。在82年,日本的工業投資率比美國高3倍。雖然美國工業近年來做出努力,但生產力的差距仍在擴大。從80年到86年,各大國的勞動生產率的平均增長率分別為:日本5.6%,英國4.7%,法國4%,美國3.4%,西德3.3%,其中英國生產力的增加主要是由相對地消減工資而取得的。在87年,如以西德的工資成本為100點計,那麼,美國為76,日本75,法國68,英國則為53。如以西德的一小時勞動生產出來的價值為100點計,美國為90,日本83,法國75,英國54。

正如以往每個「不景氣長波」時期一樣,國際資本主義經濟現時的特點是:在過去占支配地位的帝國主義強國衰落之後,並沒有出現新的帝國主義強國來取代它的地位。正因為這個原故,美元的地位並沒有被日元或歐洲貨幣單位所取代(估計各資本主義國家86年的全部外匯儲備中約有42%是黃金,50%是美元,8%是其他貨幣,其中日元只佔1%),而各國政府呼籲全球共同行動的努力只會是白費的。

對第三世界的影響
美國「經濟調整」對第三世界國家經濟的影響,大概可以分為三類國家來看。

首先,是有貿易盈餘的石油輸出國組織國家,例如沙特阿拉伯、科威特等。這些國家受油價下跌和美元下跌的雙重影響,令他們的資產和儲備大幅貶值。但問題仍未到群眾消費水平或工業生產下降的地步。

其次,是半工業化的國家及地區,如南朝鮮、巴西、台灣、墨西哥、新加坡、香港等。在87年,它們的工業生產上揚,主要由於往美國的出口不斷擴大。美元下跌和美國衰退的影響,限制它們的出口,觸發它們也會衰退,日本市場不夠大,所以不足以代替美國市場或抵消衰退影響。

還有其他第三世界國家,它們特別受國際貨幣基金會強迫實施的調整政策影響,造成災難性的非工業化和貧困化。大量資源從貧窮國家轉移到富裕國家去(從80到86年,總共1450億美元從拉丁美洲轉移到帝國主義國家),而帝國主義國家在第三世界國家的市場亦劇烈萎縮。非工業和貧窮化在拉丁美洲特別顯著。從80年到86年,智利平均國民產值下跌64%、墨西哥12%、阿根廷14.2%、委內瑞拉19%、玻利維亞27%。工人、貧農、失業和半失業者的購買力下降更為嚴重。墨西哥工資的購買力從80年到87年下降了一半,巴西則介乎37%到55%。

美元的下跌,的確減輕了它們的債務和利息(利率也有下跌),但只是由於第三世界國家部份資源是出口到歐洲、日本等國。然而,由於第三世界國家的經濟越來越「美元化」(譯按:指經濟依賴美元運行而不再受本國貨幣支配),所以這些得益被抵消了。

國際資本主義經濟現在經歷著兩個平面的分化。一方面是在帝國主義之間(雖然台灣也包括在內),美元兌其他貨幣急劇貶值;另一方面是在第三世界平面,其本國貨幣受通貨膨脹更大打擊,連兌美元也告貶值。

此外,還有不利於第三世界的進口交換比率的持續下降所造成的影響(從84年到86年,原料的價格下跌了四份之一)。它迫使第三世界輸出更多資源,是利率下降和美元貶值所補償不了的。另外還有第三世界有產階級不斷將資金調離國外的影響。

所有這些因素,令第三世界的債務不斷增加,儘管人民做出驚人的犧牲,經濟也非工業化。第三世界的長期債務從84年的7140億美元,增加到88年的9800億美元,短期債務則保持在84年的1630億美元,到88年的1550億美元的水平。

對半工業化國家來說,支付債務利息和還本的影響也不少。由於它們的出口主要是靠減低工資成本,尤其是透過通貨膨脹,所以,隨著出口增加,內部市場也同時縮減。結果是這些國家也出現大規模的生產能力過剩。例如,巴西的「資本」貨物(機器)的生產設備使用率從82年的64.1%跌至84年的54.9%在87年又回復到62.9%。

工人運動與保護主義
不久將會來臨的新的總衰退,首先會造成新一輪的失業。單是在帝國主義國家內,現在約有4千萬人失業(日本和美國的真正失業數字是被嚴重低估的,美國現時的真正失業率大約是10%);在未來危機之中,這個失業人數可能達到4500萬或更多。

面對著購買力下降和社會保障制度受威脅的情況,很多帝國主義國家的工會戰略受到恐懼失業的影響。對抗消減職位的戰略有兩種。有些工會集中爭取大量消減每週的工作小時;其他則受保護主義的誘惑。後者只是階級合作代替國際無產階級團結的變種,不是團結所有國家的工人爭取35小時或32小時工作周,而是聯合自己的老闆來對付其他國家的工人及其職位。這就是將失業輸出的政策,它對國際工人階級的災難後果,在1929年到39年已可深刻體驗。美國的工會官僚是最大程度上臣服於這政策的誘惑的。

這種反應和它在某些工人階級之中產生共鳴的客觀基礎,是帝國主義國家的工人與半工業化國家的工人的巨大工資差距。以目前匯率比較,是十比一之巨。當資本家將生產轉移到低工資國家時(實際的轉移比想像中少得多),人們以為資本家「背叛了本國工業」。資本家的直接反應是:讓我們一同在本國降低工資和限制外國貨物入口(即增加消費品價格,等於將實際工資降低更多)。

工會接受這個理由後,便會跌進災難中,工資逐步降低(美國的每週實際工資從73年的201美元降至87年的167元),直到等於半工業化國家的工資水平為止;「兩階梯社會」(在法國,5個工人之中1個是沒有「真正」工作的)和臨時工作將工人的社會保障消減;不斷侵蝕就業數目。

在任何國家,都可以找到比其工資更低的國家,作為消減工資和加強保護主義的理由。從工人的角度來看,這個政策特別有害,因為它摧毀工作職位:雖然它增加利潤,但同時卻減少營養額,因為工資被消減。如果沒有利潤上升和營業同時增加,正如在保護主義政策之下,則資本主義便不能持續增長。事實上,所有在工會接受消減工資以「保衛職位」的國家內,就業人數都繼續下降。

因此,必須嚴拒保護主義和任何「為保衛職位而作必要犧牲」的做法;必須呼籲所有國家的工人共同行動,爭取劇減每週工作小時而不減工資,以及工會共同行動提高半工業化國家的令工人飢餓的工資。這些國家的民族資本家所謂提高工資會阻止工業化,是與帝國主義國家的保護主義論調同樣不能接受的。事實上,半工業化國家更高的工資會刺激工業化,擴展內部市場和發展更高級的經濟模式。

資本主義新的基本矛盾
導致股票崩潰和將會帶來1970年代以來第三次總衰退的巨大的不平衡,顯示了「晚期資本主義」在「不景氣長波」的新的基本矛盾。這些矛盾在上一階段的增長時期已顯露了出來。

龐大的債務與資本主義制度的生存已經結構性地連結起來;單是美元債務現已達到800萬億至850萬億美元的天文數字!如果不是不斷製造巨大債務的話,便不能保證商品的出路、企業的擴展或支持公共開支。

無疑,現在出現了過剩的流動資金。積累的債務不合比例地超過了「正常」資本主義積累的需要。因此「虛假」資本和部份「紙上的經濟」將會被摧毀,部分債務會透過破產或者協議而撤除。但即使在衰退之後,債務仍會存在。

因此,生產積累的「正常化」將會極之困難或不可能。軍備生產經濟將會在病態資本主義經濟之中起著更大的商品出路的作用,儘管有各種東、西方裁軍協議。新的利潤率受債務的施累,仍將會是升得很慢和不足的。

國際資本主義經濟將不會有類似1948/73年的擴展時期,只要工人階級和一連串重要國家的反帝國主義運動沒有被嚴重挫敗而造成剩餘價值率的重大提升的話。在可見的將來,這個情況暫不會出現。

大部分債務是私人債務。同時,在私人手中和官方外匯儲備內的資本的比例,突然完全倒轉了。在1958年,十大帝國主義國家的中央銀行比私人資本家多擁有5倍的外匯儲備。在86年,私人資本家的流動或半流動資金,比中央銀行的外匯儲備(不計黃金)多十倍。

包括美國在內的民族國家的削弱甚至癱瘓,反映了這個情況,也反映了超越任何國家控制的跨國托拉斯的興起。「國家干預政策」的式微,只是反映了新的現實,但也令人誤以為市場會恢復平衡,滿足資本的需要。

87年10月的股災之後,人們對市場再也沒有信心了,轉而要求有效的政府的行動。但在各個互相競爭不休的國家之間,是沒有可能聯合行動的,況且它們相比私人資本,已越來越弱。在資本主義制度之內,不可能有一個世界國家或「最終的貸款者」。這是籠罩著地球的一個新的致命威脅。

2008年11月22日

恩道爾:「糧食危機」背後的政治

許未來
21世紀經濟報道
2008-11-22

「當前全球媒體更多聚焦於金融危機,但糧食危機才是缺糧國家真正要應對的更大的政治風險。」11月4日,旅德美籍地緣政治學家恩道爾在北京向本報記者提醒道。

恩道爾的新著《糧食危機》中文譯本最近出版上市。一直對中國讀者懷有善意和期待的恩道爾專程來華講學兩周。其間,接受了本報記者的獨家專訪。

他以阿根廷為例說道,上世紀80年代之前,這個南美洲國家不僅能實現農產品的自給,還有盈餘,但到1982年,卻深陷美國的債務圈套之中。

洛克菲勒家族憑借與時任阿根廷總統的梅內姆的緊密關係推銷轉基因農作物,到2004年,阿根廷48%的土地被用來種植轉基因大豆,由於種子和農藥都要從美國公司購買,再加上孟山都公司在專利費上所持的強硬立場,僅10年時間,在轉基因技術進步的名義下,阿根廷的糧食自給能力逐漸喪失,整個國家的農業經濟徹底受控於外國權勢集團。

「美國試圖擴散的轉基因生物計劃,目的就是將糧食政治化,以實現對全世界的控制,而不是為了讓人類獲得更好更多的糧食。」恩道爾強調說,在金融危機重創美國在全球的金融支柱的情況下,美國會加強對世界糧食的控制。怎樣避免重蹈阿根廷的覆轍,保證糧食安全,是糧食短缺國家面臨的更為嚴峻的挑戰。

糧食危機還是轉基因危機?

《21世紀》:今年上半年世界銀行在一份報告中稱,今年以來的糧食暴漲,至少有75%的原因直接與美歐將大片農田種植生物用作燃料有關。也就是說,是生物燃料革命導致了糧食危機的爆發,你認同這種觀點嗎?

恩道爾:肇始於美國的「生物燃料革命」,只是這場糧食危機的引爆器,而禍根潛藏已久。

全球糧價飆升,人們陷入糧食恐慌之中。這正是美國嘉吉穀物公司(Cargill)、ADM公司、邦基公司(Bunge)等實力強大的糧食卡特爾們所願意看到的。他們也正在借這次被操縱的糧食價格恐慌來佐證,轉基因糧食是唯一應對全球糧食短缺的解決方法。

實際上,美國擴散GMO的目的絕不是為了給人類提供更多、更好的糧食,而是為了控制全世界。

1999年至2007年的研究顯示,轉基因大豆的產量比非轉基因大豆低4%-12%,轉基因玉米與傳統玉米的產量相比,大抵相同或低12%。而根據印度的記錄,轉基因棉花歉收高達100%。

不僅如此,GMO還具有很大的風險。倫敦社會科學研究所所長侯美婉博士是知名的GMO批評者,她揭示GMO依據的是騙人的偽科學,「既危險又無效」,並強烈警告我們應該注意:「轉基因的不穩定性是個大問題,從一開始就是一個大問題。」

世界頂尖的轉基因科學家、蘇格蘭阿帕德·普茲泰博士的研究也印證了這一觀點,據他發現,轉基因玉米的毒性是非轉基因玉米毒性的3000倍。

《21世紀》:儘管如此,從裡根開始,已至少有四屆美國總統支持GMO,並不遺餘力地在世界範圍內擴散,為什麼?

恩道爾:這不是認識問題,而是權勢集團的利益需求。基因改造最早在20世紀70年代美國的研究實驗室中產生。花費數萬億美元資助這項研究的,是洛克菲勒家族的基金會。

1980年代,裡根政權在遠未確定這種基因改造農作物是否有害的時候,決意對基因工程採取無為的放任政策,並放在優先發展的戰略位置,意在借此確保美國的全球領先地位。

而促成這件事的,是他的副總統、原中央情報局局長老布什。老布什正是洛克菲勒家族栽培起來的政治精英之一,除他以外,洛克菲勒還培養出了美國前國務卿亨利·基辛格、美聯儲前主席格林斯潘,以及為小布什政府發起反恐戰爭提供學術基礎的《文明的衝突》的作者塞繆爾·亨廷頓等政界、學術界精英。

早在1986年,作為裡根政府副總統的老布什與孟山都的高管團體進行了一次所謂的「白宮特別戰略會議」,目的就是撤銷對生物技術行業的管制,為GMO的產業化開綠燈。孟山都是美國化學巨頭,在60年代的越戰中為美軍發明了致命的除草劑。

老布什在當選總統之後的1992年,置一些資深科學家們對轉基因生物可能產生意料之外毒素的警告於不顧,做出了一項毫無科學根據的行政裁定:所有的轉基因植物和食品與同品種的傳統植物「實質上相同」。這樣,美國政府就不需要對轉基因植物進行特別的衛生和安全檢測。這一裁定為孟山都和其他美國化學巨頭如杜邦、陶氏化學打開了隨意獲取轉基因技術的方便之門。

為了「阻止缺德的農民侵害企業利益」,美國農業部和轉基因巨頭聯合研發了一項種子絕育技術,可廣泛應用於所有的植物種子,並於2007年獲得了名為「植物基因表達控制技術」的美國專利。這項基因改造技術在種子成熟前產生一種毒素,使每個種子的植物胚胎自動毀滅,又被戲稱為「終結者」。農民不得不再次向孟山都等供應商購買新種子,從而被迫淪為美國種子供應商的新農奴。

需要提醒的是,既然「實質上相同」,按照各國專利法,是無法申請專利的。這件事之所以在美國行得通,原因很簡單,孟山都等大公司聘請官員擔任高管並安插高管人員到政府任職,政府與企業一唱一和,推行GMO的秘密計劃,華盛頓已經成為聲名狼藉的「旋轉門政府」。比如,前國防部長唐納德·拉姆斯菲爾德曾任孟山都旗下西爾列公司的總裁,反過來孟山都的董事會中就包括尼克松和裡根時期的環保署長。

《21世紀》:你認為奧巴馬是否會繼續轉基因擴散計劃?

恩道爾:美國商業利益集團已經與政府沆瀣一氣,利益集團會告訴他們的新總統如何去支撐他們的全球利益。尤其當前正在世界蔓延的金融危機已使美國對世界金融市場的支配地位受到嚴峻衝擊,因此我認為美國將進一步加強對世界糧食的控制。至少目前我沒看到奧巴馬會有任何「變革」的跡象。

一場「新鴉片戰爭」

21世紀》:在《糧食危機》中文版序中,你把美國的轉基因生物擴散比喻成一場「新鴉片戰爭」,是不是危言聳聽以吸引中國讀者的眼球?

恩道爾:孟山都、杜邦、陶氏益農三家美國公司和實際上由英國人控制的先正達這四家轉基因巨頭公司強迫其他國家政府接受轉基因種子和化學除草劑,我只能將其比喻為一場「新的鴉片戰爭」,以讓更多的人關注轉基因生物工程擴散的真相。

美國政府和跨國農業巨頭共同擁有「終結者」技術專利,這也就意味著,如果他們將這種種子推廣到歐盟、非洲,甚至中國和亞洲其他地區,也許10年之內,這些與五角大樓的秘密生物戰爭及其他計劃有著密切關係的私人跨國公司,將具有控制全人類生與死的權利。

這不是我危言聳聽的書齋理論。美國已經利用政治和軍事權術將轉基因生物擴散到整個美洲大陸和部分亞洲、非洲國家。比如美國政府和孟山都在1990年代向當時的阿根廷總統、洛克菲勒的朋友卡洛斯·梅內姆行賄,使阿根廷成為轉基因作物活體實驗場。在美國入侵伊拉克位於阿布·格萊布價值連城的小麥種子庫之後,美國國際開發署強迫伊拉克接受了轉基因種子。

如果一些明智的國家不團結起來加以抵制,也許用不了10年時間,它們將完全控制全球基本口糧的供應。可見,所謂的「基因革命」比1840年的鴉片戰爭要更加可怕。

《21世紀》:你呼籲世界上所有的國家團結起來抵制GMO的擴張,那麼您認為是否有必要通過什麼機構或平台來實現這一目標?

恩道爾:我還沒有發現哪個組織可以抵制GMO的擴張,也沒有哪個組織能夠明確地指出GMO的危險性。在人們的理解中,竭力推進自由貿易的日內瓦的世貿組織可以擔當此任,但是,它是在其前身關貿總協定不聽美英轉基因企業巨頭的使喚而被解散的基礎上成立的,在轉基因問題上,實際上是掛著推行農產品自由貿易的羊頭,賣GMO的狗肉。

在我看來,應對GMO不需要再增加更多的反對力量,尤其是中國和印度已經表明要反對它。從政府層面講,出於對國民健康和政府安全的考慮,我建議中國至少在10到15年內應該對GMO進行全面的禁止。這樣就有足夠的時間,用來證明GMO食物對於老鼠或其他動物是否安全。

另外,中國自主解決了13億人的口糧問題,回擊了西方人「誰來養活中國」的疑問。我還瞭解到,近年來中國政府出台了取消農業稅等一系列惠農政策,並做出確保18億畝種糧耕地紅線決策。我認為,無論是應對當前的金融危機,還是糧食危機,正如胡錦濤主席所講的,先把自己的事情辦好,就是對世界最大的貢獻。

《21世紀》:GMO並非像美英轉基因巨頭宣稱的那樣可以化解糧食危機,你有沒有解決世界糧食危機的建議,以更有效抵制GMO在全世界的擴散?

恩道爾:我個人的能力非常有限。長期以來,我最大的成就是努力澄清諸如石油危機、糧食危機以及地緣政治學上的一些戰略問題,我的這些觀點很少被公開,或是被如實反映,我也非常希望通過《21世紀經濟報道》的傳播,讓更多的國家更好地確定自己的答案。

我認為,各國政府應該借鑒中國的做法,在全球各地建立基本糧食應急儲備。中國具有戰略應急糧食儲備,這才渡過了糧食危機的難關。這是利大於弊的好事,而且它反過來又削弱了糧食利益集團對於市場價格的控制能力。

目前,歐盟的百姓也希望他們的政府能夠這樣做。但不幸的是,由於嘉吉、ADM、邦基等美國跨國農業巨頭的不斷施壓,美國和歐盟這兩個世界上最大的糧食輸出地政府早已徹底取消了沿襲多年的糧食儲備制度,以讓私營的全球化公司「更有效」地儲存和供應糧食。

面對糧食危機,這些糧食卡特爾們卻為自己的利益爭辯道:「我們現在需要市場導向的農業。」那市場導向究竟意味著什麼?——每個家庭的食品費用平均上漲了150%到300%!

我們必須警惕,一旦孟山都公司的GMO大豆、大米和玉米進入了一個國家,那麼一切都將太遲了!

孟山都公司或其他公司的「終結者」種子就可以成為控制他國的資本。這就是說,如果華盛頓認定中國在蘇丹或伊朗開採石油是「不法行為」,那麼華盛頓就可以私下指使孟山都公司不給中國運送種子。

接受GMO就等於把國家的糧食安全交給了三四個私人公司,美英對轉基因農作物的操縱,隱含的真正目的實際上是企圖控制全球糧食,以對付中國和印度這樣人口眾多的國家,以及從非洲到拉丁美洲和亞洲的整個發展中世界,實施地緣政治控制。

(《糧食危機》的譯者、國家科技部科技發展戰略研究院趙剛博士對本文有巨大貢獻,特此致謝!)

地緣政治學家恩道爾談全球糧食危機

新浪財經
2008年11月07日

威廉‧恩道爾 (F. William Engdahl) 是旅德美籍財經作家。他近年的兩部令他名卓著的著作:《石油戰爭:石油政治決定世界新秩序》(A Century Of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order ) 和《糧食危機:運用糧食武器獲取世界霸權》( Seeds of Destruction - The Hidden Agenda of Genetic Manipulation),經已在國內出版。。本文是他最近因新推介《糧食危機》一書而訪問中國,接受新浪財經網站視頻訪問的文字記錄。視頻見:http://video.sina.com.cn/finance/receptionroom/capitalmarket/20081107/211210436.shtml

2008年以來糧食危機席捲全球,在埃及首都開羅民眾排長隊購買廉價麵包,在海地食品危機引發的社會動盪迫使總理下台,世界糧倉美國也未能倖免,對顧客購買部分品種的大米數量加以限制……

在中國,城鄉一體化的加快,退耕還林的深入,大量高經濟作物的播種佔用,導致耕地大量減少,中國人未來的口糧在那裡?糧食進口能否解決老百姓的吃飯問題?當中又有什麼不為人知的秘密?

11月7日,新浪財經特邀世界著名經濟學家、地緣政治學家威廉‧恩道爾做客《財經會客廳》,解析世界糧食危機的奧秘。

威廉‧恩道爾,美國著名經濟學家、地緣政治學家,長期旅居德國。從事國際政治、經濟、世界新秩序研究已逾30年。美國普林斯頓大學政治學學士、瑞典斯德哥爾摩大學比較經濟學碩士。

恩道爾作為獨立經濟學家和新聞調查記者,先後在美國和歐洲工作。他的研究涵蓋領域極為廣泛,除金融、能源和地緣政治外,還包括世界農業問題、糧食交易壟斷、關貿總協定、世界貿易組織、國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行、第三世界債務、對沖基金和亞洲金融危機等。威廉恩道爾先生還經常應邀在一些有關地緣政治、經濟、金融、農業、能源問題的國際會議上發表演講,並定期為世界全球化中心及許多國際出版物撰寫文章,還經常為歐洲主要銀行和私募基金經理提供咨詢。

以下為對話實錄:

主持人權靜:各位親愛的新浪網友大家好,歡迎您來到新浪《財經會客廳》,我是主持人權靜。最近大家說的最多的一個問題就是金融危機,但是我們知道其實糧食安全、能源安全和金融安全是並稱世界最重要的三大安全。今天我們就請來幾位嘉賓,跟大家共同探討一下當前世界糧食的這種危機,和世界糧食安全,包括我們中國面臨的糧食安全等諸多方面的因素。

介紹一下,坐在我左手邊的這位,就是國家糧食局科學研究院的研究員丁聲俊教授,歡迎丁教授。丁教授旁邊這位是新浪的老朋友,之前也是做過專訪的,是世界著名的經濟學家,也是地緣政治學家恩道爾先生;恩道爾旁邊這位是國家知識產權局知識產權出版社第五編輯室編審主任劉忠,歡迎劉主任。來給大家特別介紹一下,今天劉主任也會充當我們的翻譯,為恩道爾先生翻譯中文。

首先要告訴大家的是,恩道爾先生的這本新書,叫做《糧食危機》已經出版了,之前還出版了一本《石油戰爭》,恩道爾先生一直很關注國際地緣政治,包括糧食和石油等能源在世界關係當中的影響。首先藉著這本新書的出版,請問一下恩道爾先生,您這本書叫做《糧食危機》,您覺得當前這個世界糧食的形勢到底危機到了一個什麼程度?

恩道爾(劉忠翻譯):實際上糧食危機,我們可以說它是一種嚴重的糧食政治危機。這個發生的背景是2005年,美國政府給了美國的農民大量的補貼,鼓勵他們種植轉基因玉米,來作為燃料進行燃燒。與此同時,歐洲的歐盟也採取了類似的政策,導致了糧食的短缺和危機。

更主要的原因是美國的權勢集團,他們為了控制世界的人口,尤其是第三世界的人口,他們使用了轉基因的玉米和糧食,來作為一種飼料,這樣導致全世界將近十億人飢餓,導致他們的死亡。控制人口的政策實際上從2008年開始已經寫入了美國五角大樓的一個戰略計劃中,其目標就是要發動一場生物戰爭,來消滅世界上的有色人種。

實際上大家可能都不敢相信,這是一種謀殺,而且要謀殺上十億的人口。可能這個事實大家都不敢相信,但是現實就是這樣。實際上尤其是美國的這些權勢集團,他們從二十年代開始和納粹德國進行合作,進行所謂的「人種改良」,其目的就是要讓大量的世界人口,尤其是有色人種處於飢餓狀態,從而從世界上消滅掉。

主持人權靜:您提到這場糧食危機,那直接的後果會是什麼?什麼樣的過程會最終導致您說的這種後果?是說糧食的價格會不斷地飆升,導致大量貧困人口他們買不起糧食,還是會出現什麼樣的情況?

恩道爾(劉忠翻譯):我們要追溯到WTO的農業政策,實際上WTO的農業政策和農業協議是向一些國際大的糧食集團操縱的,他們制定了一個市場導向的一種糧食政策,認為通過市場的調節能自然而然提供糧食,糧食供應,他們以這種方式取消了世界的糧食儲備,市場沒有糧食儲備,一部分的玉米又當成燃料進行燃燒了,所以說整個世界,尤其是政府不存糧食儲備,就導致過去18個月到20個月期間糧價的飆升。

主持人權靜:丁教授,剛才恩道爾先生說了那麼多他對當前世界糧食形勢的看法,您作為國內一個研究糧食形勢的專家,您是否認同恩道爾先生的看法?您對當前國內糧食形勢是什麼看法?

丁聲俊:剛才恩道爾教授非常尖銳地指出了當前糧食危機、金融危機和石油危機的一個重要現象,美國和歐盟發展生物燃料,對近幾年來的世界糧食危機起了一個推波助瀾的作用。到去年年底,整個世界消滅的庫存降低到30年來的最低點。

主持人權靜:是多少?這個庫存夠全世界的人吃多少天?

丁聲俊:這個庫存僅僅相當於糧食安全線的40%以下,糧食安全線按照FAO,這個糧食庫存至少要相當於當年糧食消費量的17%到18%,而現在已經降低到30年來的最低點,降低到安全線的40%以下。

主持人權靜:那導致的直接後果是什麼?

丁聲俊:直接後果是糧食價格飆升,發展中國家沒錢購買糧食,這是第一個結果;第二個,有八億以上的人,甚至有的數字講有十億人口營養不良,陷入飢餓,其中有一億人原來已經生活有所好轉,現在又重新回到新的饑民。由於美國最近以來可以說世界聲討美國發展生物燃料,他用了八千五百多萬噸的玉米生產生物燃料,供汽車,所以有的經濟學家講,八億輛的汽車奪走了八億窮人的麵包。所以是十億以上的人陷入飢餓,其中大家知道海地總理因為糧食饑荒而下了台。最近的數據,世界飢餓嚴重惡化的,在非洲有十個國家,都在發展中國家。所以說這一次世界糧價上漲的結果,損害最大的是發展中國家,是貧窮的發展中國家。

主持人權靜:恩道爾先生,您在這本新書裡邊也給我們詳細地闡述了為什麼會出現世界糧食危機的這種情況,這背後錯綜複雜的利益集團的糾葛到底是怎麼樣的?能不能再給我們講一講?

恩道爾(劉忠翻譯):其實美國真正權利不是掌握在總統手中,不是掌握在克林頓、布什還是新當選的奧巴馬的總統手中,而掌握在一些機構,一些權勢集團手中。這些權勢集團多少年都持續在生存和發展,表面上美國是一個美麗的、民主的國家,但是真正的決策是取決於極少數精英分子和權勢集團,比如說農業的一些綜合企業,杜邦公司等等這些家族,他們控制了美國的政治。這些集團不僅控制了金融,而且還控制了糧食,而且控制了石油。比如說BP,雪佛龍,這些集團他們為了保持他們的權利,他們就對,包括對石油進行控制,所以說這就是糧價飆升的真正原因,糧價飆升一時半會兒還不能緩解。正如基辛格所說的一樣,誰控制了糧食,誰就控制了所有的人民,誰控制了石油,誰就控制了所有的國家,誰控制了貨幣,誰就控制了整個世界。

另外一個因素,基於一種錯誤的科學。現在大家所知道的基因學。實際上現在的很多除草劑都是極少數的化學公司,像杜邦這樣的公司開發的,豬都來吃這種轉基因食品,這種轉基因食品實際上對人體,包括對老鼠是有害的,實驗表明這種基因食品對老鼠的大腦會產生很嚴重的損害,讓它萎縮,甚至造成它的器官萎縮。所以這種轉基因食品是不穩定的,危險的,它的現狀還不確定的這種轉基因食品會造成世界上大多數人口受到迫害。下個月有一種新的技術就要商業化了,這個技術的名稱叫做終結者技術,這種技術它能允許種子收穫一季之後,它就自動自殺,然後農民不得不去再買他的種子,因為你不能用那個種子來生產,它會自動自殺,用一種轉基因技術。正是這三、四家私人集團,西方的三、四家,尤其是美國的三家私人公司,他們通過擁有了前所未有的控制糧食的權利,他們控制了全世界的糧食生產,通過這種技術。

從健康方面來說,實際上轉基因食品還有很多的不確定性,它的一些負作用可能要通過好多年的時間才能顯現,而且它是不穩定的,從科學上來說是不穩定的。他們就是用這種非常惡毒的手段,他們的目的就是要實現控制,實現對有色人種的滅絕和控制。

主持人權靜:丁教授,剛才恩道爾先生給我們講述了轉基因食品的危害。其實轉基因食品在國內也一直都是大家討論的非常多的一個話題,尤其最近食品安全的不論是牛奶問題三聚氰氨,還是飼料等等一系列話題,我們再次把關注的焦點放到了食品安全上。這個轉基因食品是否也會對人的食品安全產生非常大的威脅?我們國內現在對轉基因食品是一個什麼樣的態度?

丁聲俊:剛才恩道爾先生講到,世界糧食危機是由少數有權勢的人造成的。大家都知道,在世界上有五大糧食帝國,這五大糧食帝國其中有四家在日本,有一家在歐洲的,它控制了世界的糧食貿易,所以我們中國現在今後的糧食,應該坦率地講,我們中國糧食在世界進口方面我們沒有什麼話語權,所以剛才教授講到了,美國的一些政治家侵略了他們,特別是在糧食方面。因此這一次世界糧食危機,這五大跨國糧食公司在這裡面起了推波助瀾的作用。比如說去年美國糧食出口糧減少了,但是他賺的錢多了幾十億美元,另外就是一些基金,最早的時候他們要到芝加哥的交易所去,但是由於當時美國國會開始不同意,但到後來國會休假的時候這個基金去了,這個基金在芝加哥交易所裡面推波助瀾,把糧價煽起來了。所以有一個國外的經濟學家這樣評論,說我們在芝加哥交易所已經聞到了基金的血腥味。

主持人權靜:也就是說您跟恩道爾先生達成一個共識,此輪全球的糧食危機,包括糧價的暴漲都是由少數利益集團操控的。

丁聲俊:實際上過去糧食還是有一定的儲備糧的,但是由於價格上去了以後,發展中國家買不起了,所以饑民又重新陷入困境。但是他們一年多賺了幾十億美元,這個問題說完了以後,然後再說轉基因的問題。

我1990年,剛才和教授講了,我在德國學習,正好有一個研究所的博士,我們在中午吃飯的時候他就問我,丁先生,你對轉基因技術有什麼看法?我當時就講,那天講了很長時間,他說這個轉基因技術至少現在還不能斷定,還不能下結論有害還是沒害,這個人是一個博士。他說在西歐,在日本,在韓國,轉基因食品必須要在標籤上標明,這個是轉基因食品,讓消費者來選擇。因為什麼?因為科學界沒有給它下結論,沒有定論它是有害還是沒害,在這種情況下由消費者來選擇。這是我所經歷的。

在中國國內有兩種意見,一種,有些科學家們認為我們對這個問題必須要嚴肅地看待,因為科學界並沒有下出定論,因此我們要嚴肅地對待。有的提出來,就是在轉基因上只能夠在纖維作物中應用,在食品中不能夠應用,這是一種意見;另外一種意見,少數的科學家他們認為沒問題。

主持人權靜:大家特別關心我們國內現在大家吃的糧食裡邊,到底有多少是轉基因的?佔多大的比例?

丁聲俊:目前中國在糧食上,在穀物上還沒有轉基因的食品,但是油,這個有一些是國外進口的大豆,有相當一部分,進口的大豆是轉基因大豆,因此在油裡邊有相當部分是轉基因豆油。但是現在在超市裡邊,可能你沒規定,國家規定它必須在標籤上註明,是不是轉基因,由消費者選擇,大米和麵粉這些還沒有。

主持人權靜:那除了大米、麵粉和油之外,其他的好像還有很多的食品,這裡邊都有嗎?

丁聲俊:這些都沒有,大豆油已經有了,因為它進口的大豆是轉基因的大豆,中國進口了三千多萬噸大豆,我們國產大豆一年大概就是一千六百多萬噸,大豆壓搾工業程序比較多,原料從美國、南美、巴西、阿根廷進來的,所以大豆油裡有轉基因的。

主持人權靜:恩道爾先生有什麼補充?

恩道爾(劉忠翻譯):我想補充一下丁教授剛才說的,實際上在美國,1992年美國老布什總統任內的時候,搞了一個行政令,他禁止對轉基因食品進行測試,而且他認為轉基因食品它和一般食品是實質相同的。搞過一些測試,而這些測試都是美國的這些糧食集團提供給美國政府的一種測試,當然他們之間完全是有一種陰謀勾當,而且完全是腐敗的作為,賄賂的作為,他們有一些交易在裡邊,甚至對很多食品他們都是禁止,而且他們禁止貼標籤。因為他們認為實質相同,就沒必要對轉基因食品貼標籤。

所以這樣完全就把轉基因食品和傳統食品混為一談了。他們就是通過這種方式來對轉基因的測試進行操縱,這就完全改變了我們人類糧食供應、食品供應的歷史,很多土豆,實際上很多轉基因土豆,轉基因大豆,轉基因玉米,它都存在很多不穩定性,產生的變異需要十年以後才能顯現出來,所以說它是很危險的。

我的立場得到印證,因為最近在德國做了一個法律上的裁決,證實食用了先正達的轉基因玉米,這個玉米叫BT176,有很多事實,食用了這個轉基因 176玉米的這些牛,它們的肝會裸露出來,或者出生以後就死亡,或者食用以後出現中毒現象。實際上這種轉基因玉米通過牛身體裡邊的反映以後出現很大的毒性,而且牛的排泄物污染了土地,這些土地可能六、七年都不能把毒性去掉。

我剛才談到老鼠食用了轉基因的土豆,做了個測試,英國一個著名的生物學家,也是轉基因專家,他做了個實驗,老鼠吃了轉基因土豆以後明顯的顯現就是說器官萎縮,甚至是大腦萎縮。從來沒有進行過獨立的長效的對轉基因食品的作用這種測試,所以說他們一直在說謊,掩蓋真相。比如說在越戰期間,他們就使用了很多化學毒劑,他們幫助美國國防部研製出了化學毒劑,對越南的生態和越南人民造成了很大的傷害,所以他們這些人總是在撒謊。

主持人權靜:很多網友跟恩道爾先生觀點比較一致,很多網友說轉基因食品的危害不是幾年之內就可以看出來的,確實方方面面的毒性跟負面的東西,可能需要十年、二十年長期的積累才能表現出來,它對人的身體的影響現在我們是不可知的。所以丁教授,我特別擔心這方面的問題,就是說我們中國對於剛才恩道爾先生提到的這種如此多危害的轉基因食品,有沒有一個詳細的規定,或者說立法一個制度,來防止對我們國內人民安全的這種影響?

丁聲俊:今年在我的印象裡邊制定了三個條例,就是禁止轉基因生物,都有這個規定,有嚴格的規定。但是面對國際上的這種鼓吹轉基因的聲浪越來越大,因此在國內有少數的科學家鼓吹這個,他們認為,在歐洲反對轉基因是一種技術壁壘。我在這裡想勸這些科學家,要以科學家嚴肅的態度對待這個問題。我認為歐洲的科學家他們是非常嚴肅地指出了這個問題沒有定論,要到下下代來看,因此我希望中國的科學家要以十分嚴肅的科學態度對待這個問題,不要認為歐洲是一種技術壁壘。

主持人權靜:剛才咱們說了這麼多轉基因食品的危害問題,今天我們還要談糧食安全跟整個糧食危機的話題。我想中國面臨的糧食現狀,除了轉基因食品的危害以外,還有一點,就是中國有如此眾多的人口,中國要吃飯的人佔到全世界人口的21%左右,中國要養活這麼多張嘴,要吃飯,糧食的儲備跟這個數量,也是關係到國家安全的一個重大問題。我們看到在十七屆三中全會上,國家就把糧食安全列為一個關係到國計民生的一個重要話題,這方面丁先生有什麼意見?

丁聲俊:你這個問題提得非常好,非常重要。我們養活了這麼多人口,既是對世界糧食安全的一個貢獻,同時對我們中國來講任務是非常之艱巨的。因此,中國的糧食安全必須警鐘長鳴,必須要有憂患意識。

主持人權靜:怎麼個警鐘長鳴法呢?

丁聲俊:就目前來講,中國的糧食安全形勢是好的,就這次世界糧食危機到目前為止還沒有給中國帶來嚴重的衝擊,但是它的傳導作用、影響作用肯定是有的。

主持人權靜:為什麼沒有給中國帶來衝擊?給我們解釋一下?

丁聲俊:為什麼沒有帶來衝擊呢?這是由於中國政府在這一屆的新政府採取了一種正確的戰略,就是在世界其他國家忽視農業的時候,這屆中國政府一直把「三農」作為各項工作的重中之重,一直在大力支持和扶持農業糧食生產。所以年年財政支持的力度都增加,2007年達到4千多億,2008年財政支持的力度達到5千多億,而且給農民是四補貼、四減免,農民都講了,現在不用交皇糧了。

主持人權靜:如果說我們進口的糧食特別多的話,是不是世界糧食的危機會對我們有更大的衝擊?現在我們國內糧食是以自給自足為主嗎?

丁聲俊:我們中國歷來是堅持以自力更生為主,因此我們對世界糧食市場的依賴度很低,因為我們對它的依存度很低,因此它這個糧食衝擊對我們的影響很小,甚至沒有。但是這個地方我要說明一點,在世界糧食危機的形勢下,中國對世界糧食安全作出了重大貢獻,因為這兩年中國不僅沒有進口糧食,而且穀物是出口的,像2007年我們穀物進出口840多萬噸。

主持人權靜:接下來我們還要採取什麼措施?

丁聲俊:現在我們措施是什麼?因為中國人口多,土地少,因此我們要堅定地堅持以自力更生為主解決自己吃飯問題的方針,這是一個方針問題;第二個,從戰略上來講,黨中央國務院把農業和糧食放在重中之重的地位,國家拿財政的錢來扶持,來支持,這個和世界上許多發展中國家是不一樣的,他們是忽視農業,是以糧食為中心,我們是重視農業,要給農民支持的力度,給他補貼。像民間糧食的價格要進一步提高,這是國務院已經宣佈的,而且比較大幅度的提高。

主持人權靜:這樣會更利於農民增收,這個會不會對我們通脹有一些衝擊呢?

丁聲俊:這個不會,因為在支持糧價上漲的同時也採取了很多措施,在必要的時候價格干預等等。比方說去年油價漲的很高的時候,國家發出一條,不管你是合資企業,也不管是國有企業,你要提價必須要向國家發改委申報。

主持人權靜:總的來說,就是讓我們保證糧價上漲、農民增收的同時,控制對通貨膨脹的進一步衝擊。

丁聲俊:控制通貨膨脹,控制經濟過熱。

主持人權靜:恩道爾先生,在您回答問題之前我先幫網友問您一個問題。

網友:恩道爾先生,據您瞭解,在美國國內有轉基因食品在市場上銷售嗎?

恩道爾(劉忠翻譯):據我瞭解,67%的食品在美國都被轉基因污染了,而且美國政府採取不貼標籤的政策,所以美國人民是在毫無知情的情況下食用轉基因食品。而這種情況下,像權勢集團大家族他們有錢有勢,可以自由自在選擇自己的一些自然食品。轉基因食品,實際我很同意丁教授的意見,就是中國採取一種自給自足的糧食政策是非常正確的,能保證糧食安全。而歐洲很多國家在很多問題上是吃了大虧的。世界上所有的人民都希望食用健康的、營養的食品,而要食用健康和營養的食品現在越來越困難了,因為大的糧食集團,還有糧食的綜合企業,他們把整個糧食生產到銷售,到食用,到加工,產品鏈他們完全壟斷了,進行工業化。比如說養雞場,從五十年代開始就實行工業化的養雞場,一個養雞場裡邊能同時關五萬隻雞,而且這些雞都是踩在自己的糞便上,然後食用一些飼料,實際上和著自己的糞便來進行餵養。我認為它們就是禽流感病毒最初的攜帶者和感染者。

主持人權靜:剛才您說67%的美國食品都被轉基因因素污染,我們有一位網友提出一個質疑,就覺得67%的這個數據可靠嗎?您有什麼依據?

恩道爾(劉忠翻譯):我的意思是67%的農田,美國的農田,都是被污染了的,大多數的雞肉都是食用的轉基因大豆,或者其他的飼料生長的。

主持人權靜:如果我們確切到說大概有多少比例的食品是受到了轉基因的污染,就是食品的比例大概會是多少?

恩道爾(劉忠翻譯):實際上所有的肉、奶製品、魚和豬,轉基因玉米,或者是轉基因其他的一些作物,糧食,餵養的飼料,所以我可以這麼說,基本上所有的食品都被轉基因污染了。

主持人權靜:看來我們食品安全的形勢還是非常嚴峻的。其實我們今天的時間已經到了,但是在最後我還是想請問恩道爾先生最後一個問題,也請您很簡短地回答我,就是說您說當前這種很嚴峻的情況,包括現在整個世界糧食的危機如此嚴重的情況,您覺得如果有解決出路的話,我們下一步該怎麼樣做?

恩道爾(劉忠翻譯):我簡短的一個意見,就是禁止公開的種子和銷售轉基因食品,因為在政治上是現實的,就是公開的種子和銷售轉基因,政治上是可行的。因為這個是英美極少數精英集團為了控制人口,消滅有色人種,他們的一種政治圖謀和政治陰謀。在委內瑞拉,實際上很多拉丁美洲國家已經開始禁止轉基因這種東西了,歐洲80%的人都反對轉基因食品,儘管歐盟跟他有一些私下的陰謀,但是也是反對的,從每個國家來說都是反對的,教皇也是反對轉基因食品。當時他以為是為了解決世界上十億人挨餓,他們也想鼓勵轉基因食品的生產,但是最後時刻被我書裡面的論點所說服,所以堅決反對轉基因食品的傳播。

主持人權靜:我們今天的直播就先進行到這兒了,非常感謝恩道爾先生和丁教授給我們帶來的關於食品安全的這場精彩的訪談。正如剛才恩道爾先生所說的,轉基因食品對於人類的危害現在還遠遠看不到它最後會有什麼樣的影響,但是我想對於轉基因食品的禁止,正如恩道爾先生提倡的,應該擴展到世界上每一個國家去,同時感謝丁教授為我們分析了我國目前的糧食政策,讓我感到欣慰的是目前在世界糧食危機動盪的情況之下,無論是我們的金融還是我們的糧食,都保持了相對的安全,我們也希望中國以後無論在金融安全,還是在糧食安全上,都能保持這種持續的穩定,保證大家生活的平穩。感謝三位做客新浪的直播間,我們下次再接著聊。

2008年11月21日

The Birth of the Mount

Fidel Castro
November 16, 2008

(Reflections by comrade Fidel) Bush seemed happy to have Lula sitting to his right during dinner on Friday. On the other hand, Hu Jintao, whom he respects for the enormous market in his country, the capacity to produce consumer goods at low cost and the volume of his reserves in US dollars and bonds was sitting to his left.

Medvedev, whom he offends with the threat of locating strategic radars and missiles not far from Moscow, was assigned a seat rather distant from the White House host.

The King of Saudi Arabia, a country that in a near future will produce 15 million tons of light oil at highly competitive prices was also sitting at his left, at Hu’s side.

Meanwhile, Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and his most faithful allied in Europe, could not be seen close to him in the pictures.

Nicolas Sarkozy, who is rather disappointed at the present architecture of the financial order, was far from him looking embittered.

The President of the Spanish Government, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, a victim of Bush’s personal resentment attending the conclave in Washington, I could not even see in the television images of the dinner.

That’s how those attending the banquet were sitting.

Anyone would have thought that the following day there would be a profound debate on the thorny issue.

On Saturday morning, the press agencies were reporting on the program that would unfold at the National Building Museum in Washington, D.C. Every second was covered. There would be an analysis of the current crisis and the actions to be taken. It would start at 11:30 a.m. local time. First, there would be a photo op, or “family picture” a Bush called it, and twenty minutes later the first plenary session would start followed by a another one in the second half of the day. Everything was strictly planned, even the fine sanitary services.

The speeches and analysis would last approximately three hours and 30 minutes. Lunch would be at 3:25 local time, immediately followed by the final declaration at 5:05. One hour later, at 6:05, Bush would be leaving for Camp David to rest, have dinner and have a pleasant sleep.

Those following the event were impatient to see the day going by and trying to know how the problems of the earth and the human specie would be dealt with in such a short time. A final declaration had been announced.

The fact is that the Summit’s final declaration was worked out by previously chosen economic advisors, very much in line with the neoliberal ideas, while Bush in his statements prior to the summit and after its conclusion claimed more power and more money for the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other world institutions under strict control of the United States and its closest allies. That country had decided to inject 700 billion dollars to bailout its banks and multinational corporations. Europe had offered an identical or even higher figure. Japan, its strongest pillar in Asia, has promised a 100 billion dollars contribution. In the case of the People’s Republic of China, which is developing increasing and convenient relations with Latin American countries, they are expecting another contribution of 100 billion dollars from its reserves.

Where would so many dollars, euros and pound sterlings come from if not from the deep indebtedness of new generations? How can the structure of the new world economy be built on paper money, which is what is really circulating in the short run, when the country issuing it is suffering from an enormous fiscal deficit? Would it be worthwhile traveling by air to a place on the planet named Washington to meet with a President with only 60 more days left in government and signing a document previously designed to be adopted at the Washington Museum? Could the US radio, TV and press be right not to pay special attention to this old imperialist game in the much-trumpeted meeting?

What is really incredible is the final declaration adopted by consensus in the conclave. It is obviously the participants’ full acceptance of Bush’s demands made before and during the summit. Some of the attending countries had no choice but to adopt it; in their desperate struggle for development, they did not want to be isolated from the richest and most powerful and their financial institutions, which are the majority in the G20.

Bush was really euphoric as he spoke. He used demagogic phrases which mirror the final declaration.

He said: “The first decision I had to make was who was coming to the meeting. And obviously I decided that we ought to have the G20 nations, as opposed to the G8 or the G13. But once you make the decision to have the G20 then the fundamental question is, with that many nations, from six different continents, who all represent different stages of economic development, would I be possible to reach agreements, and not only agreements, would I be possible to reach agreements that were substantive? And I’m pleased to report the answer to that question was, absolutely.”

“The United States has taken some extraordinary measures. Those of you who have followed my career know that I’m a free market person –until you are told that if you don’t take decisive measures then it’s conceivable that our country could go into a depression greater than the Great Depression.”

“[…] we just started on the $700 billion fund to start getting money out to our banks.”

“[…] we all understand the need to work on pro-growth economic policies.”

“Transparency is very important so that investors and regulators are able to know the truth.”

The rest of what Bush said goes more or less along this line.

The final declaration of the summit, which takes half an hour to read in public due to its length, is clearly defined in a number of selected paragraphs:

“We, the leaders of the G20 have held a first meeting in Washington, on November 15, in the light of serious challenges to the world economy and financial markets…”

“[…] we should lay the foundations for a reform that will make this global crisis less likely to happen again in the future. Our work should be guided by the principles of the free market, free trade and investment….”

“[…] the market players sought to obtain more benefits failing to make an adequate assessment of the risks and they failed…”

“The authorities, regulators and supervisors from some developed nations did not realize or adequately warned about the risks created in the financial markets…”

“…insufficient and poorly coordinated macroeconomic policies as well as inadequate structure reforms, led to an unsustainable macroeconomic global result.”

“Many emerging economies, which have helped sustain the world economy, are increasingly suffering from the world brakes.”

“We note the important role of the IMF in response to the crisis; we salute the new short-term liquidity mechanism and urge the constant reviewing of its instruments to ensure flexibility.”

“We shall encourage the World Bank and other multilateral developing banks to use their full capacity in support of their agenda for assistance…”

“We will make sure that the IMF, the World Bank and other multilateral developing banks have the necessary resources to continue playing their role in the solution of the crisis.”

“We shall exercise a strong monitoring of the credit agencies through the development of an international code of conduct.”

“We pledge to protect the integrity of the world financial markets by reinforcing protection to the investor and the consumer.”

“We are determined to advance in the reform of the Bretton Woods institutions so that they reflect the changes in the world economy to increase their legitimacy and effectiveness.”

“We shall meet again on April 30, 2009, to examine the implementation of the principles and decisions made today.”

“We concede that these reforms will only be successful if they are based on a serious commitment to the principles of free market, including the rule of law, respect for private property, free trade and investment, efficient and competitive markets and effectively regulated financial systems.”

“We shall refrain from erecting new barriers to investment and trade in goods and services.”

“We are aware of the impact of the current crisis on the developing nations, especially on those most vulnerable.”

“We are certain that as we advance through cooperation, collaboration and multilateralism we will overcome the challenges and restore stability and prosperity to the world economy.”

This technocratic language is beyond grasp of the masses.

The empire is treated courteously; its abusive methods are not criticized.

The IMF, the World Bank and the multilateral credit organizations are praised despite the fact that they generate debts, enormous bureaucratic expenses and investments while supplying raw materials to the large multinationals which are also responsible for the crisis.

This goes on like that until the last paragraph. It’s a boring declaration full of the usual rhetoric. It doesn’t say anything. It was signed by Bush, the champion of neoliberalism, the man responsible for genocidal wars and massacres, who has invested in his bloody adventures all the money that would have sufficed to change the economic face of the world.

The document does not have a word on the absurd policy promoted by the United States of turning food into fuel; or the unequal exchange of which the Third World countries are victims; or about the useless arms race, the production and trade of weapons, the breakup of the ecological balance and the extremely serious threats to peace that bring the world to the brink of annihilation.

Only a short four-word phrase in the long document mentions the need “to face climate change.”

The declaration reflects the demand of the countries attending the conclave to meet again in April 2009, in the United Kingdom, Japan or any other country that meets the necessary requirements --nobody knows which- to examine the situation of the world finances, dreaming that the cyclical crisis with their dramatic consequences never happen again.

Now is the time for the theoreticians from the left and the right to offer their passionate or dispassionate criteria on the document.

Form my point of view the privileges of the empire were not even touched. Having the necessary patience to read it completely, one can see that is simply a pious appeal to the ethic of the most powerful country on earth, both technologically and militarily, at the time of economic globalization; it’s like begging the wolf not to eat up little red riding hood.