2008年12月15日

脆弱的亞洲

21世紀網
2008年12月12日
http://www.21cbh.com/content.asp?newsid=57993

2008年亞洲銀行競爭力排名研究報告 --- 受《21世紀經濟報道》委託,香港中文大學工商管理學院,上海交通大學經濟學院 聯合推出。
2007年是亞洲金融危機後的第十年。十一年之後的2008,亞洲國家又要面對這場源於美國的金融危機。

可以說,脆弱的亞洲一直沒有擺脫對美國經濟「母體式」的依賴。在此輪全球金融危機的傳導鏈條上,亞洲金融體系不得不感受由全球價值帶來的全球風險集中爆發的切膚之痛。亞洲國家被捲入一種「需求消失」的經濟衰退中。未來3年的經濟趨勢將會是一個巨大的謎團。亞洲是否會出現大規模失業、巨額財政赤字和外貿順差全無的尷尬境地,這些考驗即將來臨。

也有訪問者很樂觀地認為,亞洲銀行體系的流動性依舊充裕,信貸緊縮並非是銀行資金緊張,恰是反映銀行擔心形成壞賬累積而提高風險定價,這或許是值得讚賞的行為。幾十年的歷史證明,不惜一切代價打通「信貸鏈條」的做法將會產生不可控的效果。假設削弱銀行對風險的評估,督促其為了拯救經濟過度放款,最終將形成壞賬,壞賬會產生更多的貨幣滯留,使得未來貨幣空間變得更加狹窄。亞洲不能再用1998年的眼光來掃瞄2008年的危局,經濟學家與我們的銀行家或應該擺脫過去的成見,因為歷史從來不給「機械記憶者」以足夠的借鑒應對當下的危機。

正在發生的金融海嘯的影響力是難以消彌的,它不僅僅在於宏大敘事語境下的經濟預期,它甚至直接「衝擊了」我們一年一度報告撰寫及數據分析,令我們的研究團隊遇到了更多技術性的難題。

我們以歷史數據評價競爭力,而歷史已經改變!因而我們搜集了2008年半年報的數據以資調整;我們大規模調研訪談始於2008年7月中以後,等到數月後撰寫報告時,對話語境已經發生了重大變化,這幾乎令研究無所適從,最明顯的是,我們與幾位印度銀行家在8月份的對話,主題在於通貨膨脹,而現今,這已經不是問題的核心。

然而,一切的難題絲毫無損於我們對於「上百位銀行專家訪問結果」和「連續三年128家亞洲銀行量化指標體系」的珍視,我們只能倍加仔細和謙卑地去開展我們的研究。由此,《2008亞洲銀行競爭力排名研究報告》揭曉顯得意義不同尋常。

限於篇幅,今年的報告只刊登節選版本,完整版本將付印出版。

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第一部分 金融危機中的亞洲國家及亞洲銀行
21世紀網

【一】亞洲國家:金融危機十年輪迴
1997年亞洲金融危機和2008年全球金融海嘯在起源和規模上都存在一定的差異,雖然這次的危機中心在美國,但隨著全球化進程的推進,以及各個國家和地區貿易和資本聯繫的日益緊密,近幾年發展迅速的亞洲國家,勢必也要受到一定的影響。

Ⅰ 危機傳導:兩條渠道三類國家
一位接受我們訪問的業內人士總結了在全球化背景下,一國經濟受美國經濟影響的兩個主要渠道:「一個渠道是,這個國家的金融機構直接參與(購買了)美國金融機構的次貸產品——或者是和次貸有關的產品,或者是金融機構銷售的產品,如CDO——這類機構會受到影響。但是這不是唯一的渠道。另一個渠道是,很多國家都對外部的需求依賴很大——像中國出口占GDP的30%多,日本的比例也很高——經濟疲軟,他們都會受到影響。雖然這些都是間接的受影響,(但)數量上的影響並不小於其他的方式。」

另一位專家從更加細分的角度,剖析了各個國家和地區層面上受這次金融危機影響的程度。

他將其分為三類:「一類是一些國家正經受的Credit Crunch,就是信貸危機,嚴重程度幾乎和美國一樣,比如歐洲的英國、德國、希臘,這些國家都在這個籃子裡,亞洲的日本、韓國也是;第二類是除了外部需求危機以外,也有信貸危機,但信貸危機的影響沒有美國那麼嚴重,像法國;第三類國家主要受外部需求的負面影響以及出口價格的影響,但信貸危機影響本身比較弱,沒有看到很強的信貸危機現象,中國和印度是代表。」

而對於亞洲金融業中心之一的中國香港,這位專家使用了同樣的方法判斷,除了企業受到需求降低的影響之外,香港也出現一點信貸危機的跡象,雖然現在並沒有膨脹,但是已經有一定的影響了,會衍生出來。

因此就亞洲國家來說,受此次金融危機影響的程度是不一樣的。

Ⅱ 亞洲囤積外儲「砝碼」的代價
聯合國的亞太社會與經濟委員會ESCAP(Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific)今年4月的一份報告1,探討了目前的金融危機對亞洲發展中國家的影響。該報告指出,大多數亞洲國家都有充足的外匯儲備以應對潛在的貨幣危機。同時,這些國家較高的儲蓄率,使得他們可以選擇擴大國內需求來帶動經濟發展,從而彌補因為發達國家的衰退而引發的出口損失。這兩點是亞洲國家處在危機中的有利因素,也是他們從1997年亞洲金融危機中學到的教訓。從目前的統計來看,亞洲國家直接持有的與次貸相關的證券化金融產品規模並不大。

但是,亞洲國家仍然需要擔心的是進一步的經濟失衡,特別是在1997年金融危機以後,大量國外投資湧進而導致的信用膨脹,以及資產價格和投資水平可能出現的泡沫。ESCAP估計,截至2007年,流入亞洲國家私人資本的60%左右,進入了這些國家和地區的權益類市場,這無疑增加了這些市場的波動性,也增加了這些國家經濟與其他地區的聯動效應。

ESCAP還指出,雖然亞洲國家在外匯儲備有了很大的提高,但其中近一半是通過國外資本的流入,而非國際貿易帶來的增加。由於流入的資本帶有很強的逐利性,意在從該國或地區的經濟增長中獲得更高收益,因此這種外匯儲備往往伴隨著很高的成本,。ESCAP估計,以亞洲國家目前資本流入規模和經濟發展情況,這種成本差不多每年達到500億美元。一方面要確保足夠的外匯儲備以防止貨幣危機的發生,另一方面又要為此支付高額的成本,很多亞洲國家,特別是東南亞國家的宏觀經濟政策為此陷入一種兩難境地。

大量外資湧入的另一個後果,就是推高了資產價格。包括印度尼西亞、日本、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國及中國香港都出現了一定程度的資產膨脹(一般定義為超過歷史趨勢水平的10%)。

更進一步,因為資產價格的強勁走勢,與很多與資產相關聯的信用產品的規模也開始擴大。以韓國為例,韓國2005年開始對家庭和個人的貸款明顯增加,貸款數量已經達到了可支配收入的140%,高於美國。韓國房地產相關貸款在銀行總貸款中的比重達47%,高於20世紀90年代日本房地產泡沫破裂前的23%到26%。同時,韓國有超過1700億美元的短期外債,並且存在小規模的經常性賬戶赤字,這一度將韓國推向危險的境地,嚴重阻礙了其經濟的增長。

Ⅲ 中國內地金融體系穩定性最強
因此,綜合上面的分析來看,隨著很多國家和地區開放程度的不斷提高,今後兩三年,大部分亞洲國家的GDP增長減緩是必然的。提及原因,正像前文我們所訪問的專家總結到的,亞洲國家主要從兩個途徑受到本次金融危機的較大影響。一是金融和資本市場,這包括直接或間接持有跟次貸相關的證券化金融產品,及本國或地區資產價格回落帶來的一系列的經濟問題。另一個是,美國以及同樣受到次貸牽連的歐洲國家增長放緩,導致亞洲國家出口量縮減,同時亞洲國家之間的貿易需求也將可能減少,從而使得危機向實體經濟蔓延,進而再影響到本國或地區的金融市場。

大多數受訪專家也表達了相同的觀點。他們認為,經濟增長的放緩對實體經濟的影響,現在已經慢慢體現了。美國很多進口商的訂單都明顯降低,對於以中國為代表的亞洲出口型國家來說,「沒有了這個出口,就是經濟下行,財務效應又沒有了,消費和投資都在下降。」

在本次亞洲銀行競爭力研究的訪談部分中,我們特別邀請受訪者對我們研究樣本中的亞洲10個國家和地區,面對此次危機時,金融體系的穩定性程度做出了他們主觀上的比較(結果見圖1)。大部分受訪者表達了他們的看法,認為在這次危機中,相對來講,中國內地是最為穩定的,中國香港、新加坡、日本、中國台灣和印度處在中等水平,而韓國和其他三個東南亞國家受到的影響更大一些。

【二】亞洲銀行業:整體盈利水平略有下降
亞洲的銀行在目前及今後一段時間裡需要面對的是全球信貸規模的緊縮,以及因金融危機而引起的實體經濟的下滑,這注定是一條不平坦的路。

今年,我們就金融危機對銀行不同業務的影響程度進行調查(圖2)。結果表明,大家的看法基本是一致而且是符合目前實際情況的。投資銀行業務受到的影響最大,其次是公司業務。零售業務和私人銀行業務受到的衝擊相對較輕。

今年亞洲銀行競爭力研究已有的數據表明,相對於2007年,中國香港、韓國、菲律賓等國家(地區)的銀行2008年上半年的平均盈利水平,已開始出現下降的趨勢。而且值得注意的是,在去除了某些銀行極端的收益率情況下(即以中位數代替平均數),馬來西亞和中國台灣也加入到了銀行收益開始下降的國家和地區中。中國內地則仍然保持了穩定的上升趨勢。從我們今年和去年研究的各家銀行樣本期間的平均回報率來看,中國香港、日本、韓國和泰國都呈現了負增長,而亞洲銀行的整體盈利水平也略有下降(具體比較可參見附表)。

Ⅰ 激進與保守:韓日案例正反面
具體從國家上看,韓國本身國內的信用擴張已經超過了歷史上的警戒線,其信用評級已經開始下降,該國銀行業可能在今後一段時間需要迎來更大的挑戰。同時,在訪談中談到「為什麼每次危機,韓國所受到的影響都特別大」的話題,專家和業內人士的意見也基本一致,「他(韓國)每次這樣還是外債的問題。」

一位熟悉韓國金融模式的專家仔細剖析了韓國出現問題的原因:「韓國的投資(額)很高,投資增長率很快,本國貨幣市場發展很充分,所以韓國出現了一種模式,叫批發融資。這實際上是,韓國的銀行去國際資本市場上借錢,再貸給別人。在國際資本市場上資金很充足的情況下——別人都要有儲蓄,找地方去投資——這個模式(是可行的);(但是,也)可能會出現問題,像現在的情況,當投資者或者是儲蓄者都比較小心,不敢隨便把錢借給金融機構的時候,韓國的金融模式就出現問題了。韓國金融機構從國際市場貸款給本國企業,是滿足中長期的投資(需求),但無法滿足短期的流動資金需求,國際資本市場一出問題,他(指韓國金融機構的貸款)就沒有辦法循環下去了,流動資金都會出現問題。」

而談到日本銀行發展的狀況時,有受訪者表示:「日本的銀行在這幾年做得不好,只不過他們從上次亞洲金融危機中積累了很多教訓,現在手裡積累了大量的現金,這為他們現在到處去收購提供了條件。正因為日本的銀行比較保守,所以本次金融危機中,他得到了很多的好處。」有受訪者表示贊同,「1997年金融危機把日本的銀行打得一塌糊塗了,他們整天搞兼併重組,原來那些名聲都沒有了。」

因為日本的會計年度比其他亞洲國家晚,我們尚未系統地獲得有關日本的銀行今年上半年的財務數據。但已有媒體報道稱,日本第二大銀行Mizuho Financial Group今年上半年的收益,從去年同期的3200多億日元下降到946億日元左右,降幅達到了驚人的71%,主要損失來自於貸款壞賬和證券化金融產品的投資2。日本的第一大銀行Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group也宣稱要融資近1萬億日元以充實其資本。由此可以看出,日本的銀行在次貸及按揭的證券化產品上存在的風險暴露可能並不小。

Ⅱ 港台銀行業:相對樂觀
此次危機中,大多數亞洲國家和地區的銀行最大的問題是,對與次貸相關的證券化金融產品的風險暴露,導致收益的大幅下滑。

印度的銀行總體穩健,但也不是非常樂觀。印度ICICI Bank 因此次危機,曝出了2.64億美元的損失。而SBI,Bank of India和Bank of Baroda等印度其他銀行公佈的風險敞口,也甚為可觀。

至於中國台灣,專家們則相對樂觀,因為當地金融機構可能參與國際化的程度不是很高,「台灣當地的貸款業務沒有很大的增長,我的主觀判斷是,台灣(受到)的相對影響不是很大。」

熟悉中國香港金融市場的人士也表示,香港也有所謂的按揭或借貸公司,類似於美國。「但香港的money lender進入按揭市場的很少,而且香港小,容易監控。美國太大了,很難監控。」所以他認為,從香港本身爆發出來的問題有限。

目前香港的問題主要是,當地金融機構涉足了危機相關的產品和交易,同時香港市場的全球化和自由化程度,也使得其股票市場對危機的反應比較明顯。有受訪者就表示:「香港是個比較自由的市場,資金能比較自由的進出。股市就像提款機,外部有問題的話,資金就會被抽出。而且香港很多銀行確實賣過一些投資性產品,(他們)以為是保本的,(但)肯定有問題。」同時,也有受訪者更加謹慎,稱香港目前暴露出的問題可能只是一個方面,更大的影響,「香港好像還沒有真正感受到」。因此,香港金融業及銀行業未來的狀況,仍需要高度關注。

Ⅲ 中國銀行業:與危機擦肩而過?
而對於中國內地的銀行業,我們的受訪者中,大多數還是表示了相對樂觀的觀點,「中國的銀行與這次危機是擦肩而過。」

一位受訪者在談到內地資產規模最大的銀行工商銀行時表示,「工行外匯資產占總資產的比例很小,在這方面受到的影響很有限。」這可能代表了目前大多數中國的銀行的現狀。就中國的銀行優勢來說,專家和業內人士認為,「內地銀行在融資方面,市場還是不錯的。總體上來說,金融風暴對中國內地銀行的影響肯定是有的,但不大。(內地銀行)總體業務都不錯,特別是頭半年的業績很不錯。」

中國的銀行業因為國內整體經濟環境的穩定,處在的位置相對有利,但是也存在不可忽視的問題。

有受訪者就提出,「(中國)房地產的貸款早已經縮得非常緊,中小企業從年初(在資金鏈上)就開始出問題,現在更緊」,這是需引起關注的重要方面。再者,次貸危機發生後,中國的銀行也出現了不少損失,雖然相對規模不大,但絕對數量也非常可觀。這包括之前持有的與次貸相關的結構化金融產品,和後來因持有雷曼兄弟債券而存在的較大風險敞口。

對於中國銀行業的未來,受訪者認為應該以更加謹慎的態度去對待,「如果持續降息,就會出現一個問題——銀行業的收入來源越來越少,因為存貸的息差在下降,投資的產品價格在下降,個人業務在下降,那麼銀行的收入增長就比較難。」因此,中國銀行業面對的挑戰非常艱巨。

對於整個亞洲銀行業來說,因為金融危機的爆發,而使得今年成為非常特殊而關鍵的一年。我們今年的研究也更加注重他們在危機中的狀況,將討論全球性的危機下各個國家和地區經濟發展及其銀行業出現的新問題、新情況、新特點。我們將呈現出,一個新的市場環境下,亞洲銀行競爭力的另一個側面。

2008年12月9日

Is Chavez an obstacle to the Venezuelan revolution?

Marcus Pabian
Direct Action
Issue 7, December 2008
Marcus Pabian is a member of the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the Australia-Venezuela Solidarity Network.
Despite Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez leading a popular socialist revolution in his country that has inspired millions beyond its borders, a range of people describing themselves as revolutionary socialists don’t accept that such a revolution is taking place and have declared Chavez incapable of leading such a revolution; that he is an obstacle to carrying through such a revolution.

Before examining their views, we should recall what has actually happened in Venezuela under Chavez’s leadership. On April 13, 2002, a workers’ and soldiers’ revolution won state power in Venezuela and restored Chavez as the country’s president, defeating a US-backed military coup led by Venezuela’s capitalist oligarchy and army high command that had been staged two days earlier. The coup was an attempt to stop the Chavez leadership taking control of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA out of the control of Venezuela’s capitalist oligarchy and the US oil corporations.

Despite the illusions Chavez had held up to then that he could pursue a “Third Way” between neoliberal capitalism and socialism, he had sought control over PDVSA in order to redirect the enormous export earnings of the company into meeting the needs of Venezuela’s workers and peasants. The coup shattered Chavez’s and his supporters’ illusions in the possibility of pursuing a “Third Way”. The political polarisation in Venezuelan society that his attempt to expropriate PDVSA provoked, culminating in the coup, also polarised the National Armed Forces of Venezuela (FAN). The top brass, drawn from wealthy families, had led the coup. But the majority of junior officers and soldiers, drawn from poor working class and peasant backgrounds, supported Chavez’s view that the country’s oil wealth should be used to meet the needs of the population as a whole, not just the capitalist elite. Rebel soldiers united with hundreds of thousands of the poor on the streets of every major city and rapidly smashed the coup regime.

In the months following the coup, the Chavez leadership purged the military of those who had supported the coup and were loyal to the interests of Venezuela’s capitalist oligarchy. This broke the core institution of the state power of the capitalist class and left the armed forces composed overwhelmingly of those who had toppled the coup out of loyalty to the fundamental interests of the working class and peasants. As a result, Chavez’s government could rely on the support of the armed forces as it confronted the economic power of the capitalist class and the old pro-capitalist civil service bureaucracy; it could now act as a working people’s government. The political revolution to transfer state power from the capitalist class to the working people had been fundamentally accomplished.

The reliability of this new state power to act in the interests of the working people was demonstrated a few months after the April revolution, when the capitalist oligarchy launched a “strike” within PDVSA. In December 2002 the top capitalist managers of PDVSA sabotaged the company, reducing oil production from 3 million barrels a day to 150,000, crippling oil income in an attempt to destabilise the revolutionary Chavez government by creating a sharp economic crisis. They were joined by 18,000 middle and lower managers and well-paid technicians. Local police forces still loyal to the capitalist oligarchy tried defending PDVSA installations against oil production workers who attempted to undo the sabotage but were quickly brushed aside by the armed forces.

Socialist revolution
By the end of January 2003 the Chavez government, relying on army officers and oil industry workers, had taken control of PDVSA, the single biggest section of the national economy. The 18,000 mangers and technicians involved in the sabotage were all sacked. Winning control of PDVSA ushered in the socialist revolution — the first step in building a socialist state that organises expropriated capitalist property into a centrally planned economy that can meet the needs of working people rather than capitalist profits.

Taking control of PDVSA transformed the reach of the Chavez government. PDVSA not only had massive revenues but its offices and staff provided the working people’s government with the equivalent of a civil service to administer government programs. The Chavez government could now bypass the resistance of the old civil service bureaucracy.

With revenue and administrative resources from PDVSA and the support of Cuba’s socialist government, enormous social gains have been made by working people — the eradication of illiteracy; a 49% reduction of those living in poverty and a 70% reduction of those living in severe poverty; a 63% reduction in unemployment; the highest minimum wage in Latin America; free education including at university and a doubling in the number of students; an expanded free health system with 10 times the number of primary health professionals and five times the number of clinics as before; improved nutrition levels through the setting up of 15,000 subsidised food markets; the planting of 33 million trees, reforesting 38,000 hectares of land. While many new public houses have been built, there are plans to end the housing shortage completely with the construction of 1.6 million new public housing units by 2016. These economic and social gains for working people demonstrate what can be achieved even in a short space of time with a socialist revolution that progressively takes charge of the economy.

Grassroots self-government is also in action and growing — the communal councils which each organise 200-400 families, number over 18,000. They bring direct democracy into daily life. They directly control their own budgets from a national fund, not local taxes.

Venezuela’s socialist revolution has expanded the centrally planned economy beyond PDVSA and the oil industry to other industries: Sidor, the largest steel mill in Latin America, the Alcasa aluminium company, the electricity companies, telecommunications company CANTV, three cement companies, and the second largest bank.

Still a ‘bourgeois state’?
Surprisingly, both the decisive turning points — the April revolution that won state power and the expropriation of PDVSA that began the socialist revolution — have been missed by a range of revolutionary socialists in the imperialist countries, leading them to conclude Chavez cannot lead the revolution they still think hasn’t begun. In September, for example, despite the expropriation of the Sidor steel mill just a few months earlier, International Viewpoint, the monthly journal of the Fourth International, an international organisation of revolutionary socialist parties, claimed that “the Venezuelan state is a bourgeois state”, i.e., that the capitalists are still the ruling class in Venezuela.

IV writer Fernando Estevan claimed that of all nationalisations by the Chavez government, none had transferred ownership from the capitalist oligarchy to the working class because the companies had been paid for and because the state power that now runs them was still “a bourgeois state”. Estevan conveniently misses the fact that PDVSA, formerly the most valuable possession of the capitalist oligarchy, was expropriated without any payment.

But there have been many other expropriations of capitalist property that have been paid for by the Chavez government. For the Fourth Internationalists, this form of nationalisation is proof that the Chavez government administers nationalised property for the capitalist class. This dogmatic conception of Estevan and his cothinkers in the FI to the real content of the nationalisations which blinds them makes them expropriations — they transfer ownership to a working people’s government, to a government that incorporates them into a plan of national production to meet the needs of working people rather than capitalist profit.

Under certain conditions, buying out the capitalists can be a form of expropriation of capitalist property by a revolutionary working people’s government. This was recognised by both Marx and Lenin. In Russia in April 1918, Lenin considered the need to expropriate, develop and centrally plan the economy as “the most difficult stages of transition” to socialism. In certain circumstances, he consider it better for a working people’s government to “buy from the bourgeoisie the land, factories, works and other means of production”, if, “the circumstances were such as to compel the capitalists to submit peacefully and to come over to socialism in a cultured and organised fashion”. Lenin observed that Marx had frequently remarked to Engels, “we could buy out the whole lot of them”.

Another measure taken by the Chavez government has also led Estevan and those who share his view to conclude that the Chavez government is not revolutionary — it encourages a transition from private capitalism to “state capitalism” to improve national production. On June 11, Chavez announced a plan to allocate $1 billion to increase production through joint ventures with capitalists in the oil, food and manufacturing industries as part of a national economic plan coordinated by the government that would target the needs of working people. This would achieve a further step towards the centrally planned economy at the heart of the socialist revolution.

Lenin, again writing in April 1918, also emphasised that a method of “compromise” and financial incentives should be used by the Russian working people’s government in order to draw capitalist business owners into forming joint ventures with the Soviet state as a step in the transition to socialism. This, Lenin argued, would allow national accounting and control of production, larger scale production, and give workers time to learn to organise such large-scale production and thus assure “the consolidation of socialism”. But those capitalists who choose not to come over to “state capitalism” peacefully were compelled to under pain of expropriation.

Similarly, the Chavez government has threatened, and carried out, expropriations of capitalist companies that reject the incentives and compromises offered and instead choose to sabotage such national production plans. A prime example is Sidor, which refused to produce steel pipes for the national plan, exporting them instead. Chavez warned Sidor’s owners in May 2007 to stop the exports or: “I would be obligated to nationalise it like I have done with CANTV”. Following Sidor’s refusal to comply, it was expropriated earlier this year by the Chavez government with the support of the Sidor workers.

Chavez also threatened the private banks in May last year. “The private bank has to give low-cost financing”, he warned, “and if they don’t want to do that then they can leave, or we will nationalise them, and I hope they understand this message.” The country’s second largest bank was nationalised this year.

Can Chavez lead the revolution?
For Estevan and those who share his views, Chavez’s call for joint ventures with capitalists aroused suspicion and surprise. In an article in the November issue of IV, he claimed the move was either “Keynesian” or “liberal”, a simple handout to the capitalists. Chavez’s actions are seen by IV’s Venezuela writer as deeply contradictory to a transition to socialism and therefore he concludes a transition to socialism would only come about if the workers become a force independent of Chavez’s decisions.

The International Marxist Tendency (IMT) led by British Trotskyist Alan Woods also concludes that the Chavez team cannot lead the transition to socialism, claiming there is an “absence of a firm proletarian revolutionary leadership armed with the scientific ideas of Marxism”. On January 11, Woods declared that Chavez lacked “the correct strategy and tactics” to make the transition to socialism because the conditions for “a victorious socialist revolution” were favourable but after “all the talk about socialism the fundamental tasks of the socialist revolution have not been carried out” by the Chavez leadership.

Woods claims both working class and capitalist forces are reflected “especially in the leadership” around Chavez, creating “constant vacillations and hesitations” by Chavez himself. Thus the IMT claim Chavez is swinging hopelessly between the demands of millions of workers, peasants and youth striving for socialism when his government does nationalise a company but then Chavez is accommodating to the influence of a pro-capitalist “right-wing” within the Bolivarian movement when he proposes joint ventures.

According to Woods, this “right-wing” favour slowing down the revolution (instead of nationalising everything immediately) and reaching agreement with the capitalist oligarchy (in joint ventures) and imperialism (joint ventures with First World corporations). Thus the IMT sees moves such as Chavez’s June 11 announcement of a fund for joint ventures between capitalist employers and the revolutionary government, not as a step toward a socialist planned economy, but as the retrograde influence over Chavez of the Bolivarian “right-wing”. Thus, in an August 2 article, Woods denounced Chavez’s June 11 call for joint ventures as the product of the Bolivarian “right-wing” of “reformists and Stalinists” trying “to create a national bourgeoisie with state money” by “throwing [pubic] money at private capitalists”.

The Bolshevik leaders of the Russian Revolution were also confronted with similar criticisms for pursuing joint ventures and “compromises” with the capitalists. As Lenin wrote in April 1918, when such joint ventures were proposed by the Bolsheviks as a means to peacefully advance the creation of a state-directed economy they infuriated the ultraleft wing of the Communists, who began “shouting hysterically, choking and shouting themselves hoarse, against the ‘compromise’ of the ‘Right Bolsheviks’.”

Instead of the method of “compromise” with the “cultured capitalists who accept state capitalism” — capitalism directed and controlled by the workers’ state — the “left Communists” declared: “The systematic use of the remaining means of production is conceivable only if a most determined policy of socialisation is pursued”. The Bolsheviks, they claimed, should not “capitulate to the bourgeoisie and its petty-bourgeois intellectualist servitors, but [act] to rout the bourgeoisie and to put down sabotage completely”.

Woods makes a similar proposal to the Russian “left-wing” Communists. He argues that it would have been possible immediately following the presidential election of 2006 for Chavez “to introduce an Enabling Act in the National Assembly to nationalise the land, the banks and the key industries under workers’ control and management”.

Contrary to Woods’ claim, Chavez has not sought a political compromise with the “national bourgeoisie”, an alliance aimed at preserving capitalism. Rather, the Chavez government is seeking economic cooperation from “the national bourgeoisie”, as Chavez pointed out in a January speech, to allow the time needed to strengthen “the people’s organisation and the people’s power” and then, “we’ll accelerate the march” to socialism.

Unlike the impatient Woods, who would like Chavez to simply decree the immediate expropriation of all capitalist businesses “under workers’ control”, Chavez understands that socialism cannot come about by government decree. It requires the prior development of the class consciousness, political organisation and acquisition of administrative skills by the working class. Thus Chavez is focussed on building the United Socialist Party of Venezuela into the mass political force necessary to carry through the transition to socialism — a mass revolutionary socialist party. On the economic plane, the Chavez leadership is following many of the steps that Lenin advocated after the Bolshevik-led workers took political power in November 1917, steps toward the building up of a workers’ centralised administration of economic resources and activity, including joint ventures with capitalists who submit peacefully to a national economic plan serving working people’s interests.

In his September IV article Estevan wrote that 12 days after Chavez’s June 11 offer to the capitalists, “when the most radical wing was wondering about the logic of such economic reforms, Chavez caught everyone on the back foot by announcing the nationalization of the sugar factory of Cumanacoa in the state of Sucre, in the framework of a plan for the development of endogenous production of sugar cane’’. Estevan added that this “nationalization followed those of CANTV (telephony) and Corpoelec (electricity) which took place in July 2007, of Sidor, the country’s principal steel-works in April 2008, [and] of the cement industry, including the French company Lafarge and the Mexican Cemex, in May 2008. Lastly, this nationalization preceded the announcement of the nationalization, in July 2008, of Banco de Venezuela, a subsidiary of the Santander group, which was the second-biggest private bank in the country, with funds of more than 500 million euros.”

Given the past record of the Chavez leadership of expropriating capitalist property, why did the Chavez government’s nationalizations of the Cumanacoa sugar factory and Banco de Venezuela catch “everyone” of the Trotskyists “on the back foot”? In his September IV article, Estevan argued that while the nationalisations carried out by the Chavez government “contribute to giving weight to the state productive and financial apparatus, to the detriment of the private sector … the Venezuelan state is a bourgeois state, with many elements of state capitalism”. If you think that Chavez heads a “bourgeois state”, a coercive apparatus that defends capitalist property and capitalist profits at the expense of the interests of the working people of Venezuela, then you will continually be caught “on the back foot” by the actions of the Chavez leadership team. If you stick to such a view, you will fail to see that they are genuinely revolutionary socialists who are consciously leading the socialist revolution in Venezuela.

How competition produces monopoly

Allen Myers
Direct Action
Issue 7, December 2008

In its earliest stages, capitalism necessarily began from what was provided by the feudal economy that preceded it. This was primarily an extremely low level of productivity, based mostly on very simple tools and producers (peasants and artisans) with few skills.

Because capitalism is production for profit by selling to an anonymous market, unlike feudalism, it sought constantly to increase production. Initially this was accomplished primarily through increasing the division of labour. Production of a commodity that previously had been made by a single person was divided into a series of tasks, each performed by a different individual. In his Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, the English political economist Adam Smith illustrated the enormous increase in productivity brought about by the division of labour in pin manufacture: a single individual, Smith wrote, could not make 20 pins in a day, but 10 specialised workers cooperating through a division of labour could make 48,000 in one day.

As the division of labour spread and intensified within the production processes of more and more commodities, the tasks performed by each individual worker became more and more simplified and standardised. This simplification made it easy to develop machinery that could do part or all of what had previously been done by a worker.

For capitalists, replacing workers with machinery reduced costs and increased output. Competition among capitalists therefore made it compulsory for every capitalist to introduce the latest machinery; if they didn’t, they would be undersold by those capitalists who did. Most of the profits of a business were ploughed back in to it, to get newer and better machinery to keep up with the competition. Capitalist development therefore brought about a huge increase in the productivity of human labour.

But, less obviously, capitalism was also undermining this process. Over time, competition eliminated the less successful capitalists and increased the size and economic power of the companies that survived. Towards the end of the 19th century, major parts of the economies of the most advanced capitalist countries came to be controlled by a few firms, or only one. Increasingly, monopolies dominated capitalist economies.

Monopolies are usually hugely profitable. But their profits depend on ending greatly increased productivity. Monopolies gain their super-profits by restricting production, making the supply of their product fall below the demand. Because the product is scarce, its price and the monopoly’s profits go up. If a monopoly increased production, its product would become less scarce, and its monopoly profits would decline. So while a monopoly still seeks technological improvements that reduce its costs, it has less and less motive to invest in more productive equipment.

Of course, the power of a monopoly to limit production is not absolute. There is always at least a theoretical possibility that if a monopoly gets too far behind the times technologically, some other capitalist with new technology might break into the industry. In particular, there is a danger of some foreign capitalist, perhaps with support and subsidies from its government, breaking the monopoly.

It is also the case that monopolies can make things uncomfortable not only for ordinary people but also for capitalists operating in other areas, if the product of the monopoly is important to their own operations. For example, the antitrust laws passed in the United States in the late 19th and early 20th century were not totally opposed by all capitalists, some of whom were worried about being held to ransom by the Rockefeller family’s Standard Oil monopoly (which was partially broken up in 1911 by a Supreme Court ruling). Similarly, throughout most of the 20th century, developed capitalist countries that had a steel industry did everything they possibly could to maintain it, because steel was so fundamental to production of military equipment, and no country wanted to be left in a situation where it relied on a potential enemy (which was any other country) for its military production.

Still, there is an inherent tendency in capitalist competition to restrict the growth of productivity and create monopolies. And the super-profits of monopolies create a further dilemma: how to reinvest them. These profits cannot be reinvested in the industry that created them, because that would undermine further super-profits. This is the fundamental economic source of imperialism, which will be the topic of the next article in this series.

Are we headed for another Great Depression?

Doug Lorimer
Direct Action
Issue7, December 2008

“The severity of this economic contraction is a once-in-a-hundred-year phenomenon. It really does compare in severity to the Depression of the late 1920s and through the ’30s”, Donald Brean, a professor of finance and economics at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, told the November 11 London Financial Times.

Addressing his company’s annual banking and financial services conference, Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain said on November 11 that the global economy is entering a slowdown of epic proportions comparable with the period after the 1929 Wall Street stock market crash. “This is not like 1987 or 1998 or 2001”, said Thain. “The contraction going on is bigger than that. We will in fact look back to the 1929 period to see the kind of slow-down we’re seeing now.”

US President George Bush told the G20 summit in Washington on November 15 that he had agreed to a US$700 billion rescue plan for US financial institutions only after being told by his Treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, that the US was at risk of falling into “a depression greater than the Great Depression” of the 1930s. Speaking at a November 26 reception at the Swedish embassy in Washington, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, a columnist for the New York Times, declared that the current banking crisis is “functionally similar to that of the Great Depression” and many symptoms were the same, including the “impotence” of monetary policy to remedy financial troubles.

The current economic crisis certainly surpasses any other experienced by the developed capitalist countries since the Great Depression of the 1930s. “It’s a perfect economic storm, which is a combination of an ordinary recession, housing collapse, the credit crisis and major asset deflation”, Barry Ritholtz, CEO of stock market trading software maker Fusion IQ, told journalists on November 20.

Massive government aid
On November 24 Bloomberg.com reported that the financial crisis had wiped out $23 trillion, or 38% of the stock market value of the world’s companies, and brought down three of the biggest Wall Street firms, as well as American International Group, the world’s biggest insurance company. It also reported that the “US government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday. The pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced in the nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial system after the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.

“The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion already tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response to an economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs the plan approved by lawmakers, the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years before the crisis.”

The next day, the US government announced a further $800 billion in loan programs, bringing its cumulative financial industry rescue initiatives to $8.5 trillion, equivalent to 60% of the total value of the US GDP last year. Most of the money, $5.5 trillion, comes from the US central bank, the Federal Reserve Board. About $1.1 trillion comes from the Treasury and the rest is commitments from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Housing Administration.

These massive loans, and the accompanying partial nationalisations of banks and other financial companies implemented by the US and other governments across the capitalist world, will probably ensure that the capitalist financial system does not experience a 1930s-style collapse, but at the cost of saddling the developed capitalist economies with an even more enormous amount of debt. This in turn will mean that the recovery from the present global economic recession, when it eventually comes, will be slow and anaemic.

The enormous government loans provided to the banks have been justified by the Bush administration as necessary to unfreeze an alleged complete lockdown in bank lending in the wake of the September 15 collapse of Lehman Brothers, Wall Street’s fourth largest investment bank. However, the November 17 Wall Street Journal reported that US banks “are lending at record levels. Their commercial and industrial loans, at $1.6 trillion in early November, were up 15 per cent from a year earlier and grew at a 25 per cent annual rate during the past three months, according to weekly Federal Reserve data. Home-equity loans, at $578 billion, were up 21 per cent from a year ago and grew at a 48 per cent annual rate in three months.”

Non-bank loans
What has frozen up is not ordinary bank lending, but the $10 trillion shadow banking system that has traded “securities” derived from loans made by non-bank financial firms, but backstopped by the commercial banks, for automobile, housing and commercial real estate purchases. As the WSJ noted, “Increasingly in the past decade, [these] loans were packaged into securities and sold to investors around the world — pension funds, endowments, mutual funds, hedge funds and others. Institutional investors gobbled up this and other kinds of credit that didn’t come via traditional commercial banks, such as junk bonds or commercial paper … But investor confidence in credit markets has been shattered, in part because many debt securities performed so much worse than their credit ratings suggested they would.”

According to data examined by the WSJ, “Issuance of asset-backed securities — instruments used to package credit-card and auto-loan debt during the boom — was down 79% in the year through October from last year, to $142 billion … In 2005 and 2006, investors snapped up more than a trillion dollars of these instruments. Junk-bond issuance was down 66% in the first 10 months of the year from the same period in 2007 …

“So too are bank loans to large corporate borrowers — the kinds of loans that typically get resold and packaged into securities. While overall banks’ loan books are growing, this kind of lending fell by 46% in the August-to-October period from the same period a year earlier.”

The global financial crisis was triggered by the deflation from late 2005 of the US housing market price bubble, which exposed the fact that many housing loans were “toxic”, i.e., had been fraudulently made to people who didn’t have the means to repay them.

Overproduction crisis
Underlying the crisis in the capitalist financial system is a long-term overproduction crisis in what is misleadingly called the “real economy” — the production for profit of goods and services. Markets for most goods and services are simply too saturated to provide opportunities for high profits to made through further big investments in their production. As a result, the super-rich families that own the big industrial corporations, banks and other financial businesses in the US and other developed capitalist countries have put more and more of their capital into financial markets, to reap higher speculative paper profits from these markets.

The crisis in the overproduction of goods and services is well illustrated by the huge levels of productive overcapacity in the automotive industry. A March 8, 2003, article in the Washington National Journal reported: “Vehicle sales are at near-record levels in the United States — 16.9 million in 2002 — but that is an illusory image of success. A rising portion of those sales comes from imports, which create no high-paying U.S. manufacturing jobs. Moreover, automakers’ unprecedented and unsustainable low-rate financing deals, which amount to a subsidy for every car sold, have been artificially sustaining new-car sales. A slowdown in sales would pose problems for the industry, because production overcapacity haunts both US and foreign producers.”

The article pointed out that automobile manufacturers “around the world have added about 19 million units in production capacity since 1990 and can now build about 77 million cars and light trucks per year, according to Autofacts, a PricewaterhouseCoopers subsidiary in Bloomfield Hills, Mich. But consumption of new vehicles this year is expected to total only about 56 million units. As a result, overcapacity in the auto industry is now about 27 percent worldwide. ‘At some point, something has to give,’ said David Snyder, director of business development for Ford.”

Indeed, beginning in 2005, “something” did give — the profitability and potential survival of the three major US automobile manufacturers. In 2005, General Motors, at that time the world’s biggest auto maker, recorded a loss of $10.6 billion. Ford lost $1 billion that same year. In 2006, GM lost $2 billion, Ford lost $12.7 billion and Chrysler lost $1.47 billion. Last year, GM lost a record $38.7 billion. Ford lost $2.57 billion and Chrysler lost $3 billion.

In the first nine months of this year, GM lost $21.2 billion, while Ford lost $8.7 billion. GM has announced that it would run out of cash before the end of the year. GM, Ford and Chrysler have sought a government loan of $25 billion simply, they claim, to be able to stay in business in 2009. Without it, they warn, 2.5-3 million US jobs in the automotive and related industries will be lost.

Union officials back CEOs
The Bush administration and a host of other US federal politicians have argued against granting such a loan. However, this is simply a ploy to give the executives of the Big Three US automakers and the pro-company officials of the United Auto Workers (UAW) union a weapon to blackmail auto workers into accepting plant closings, wage cuts and the slashing of health care and other benefits.

The November 21 Detroit Free Press reported that the UAW bureaucrats were secretly negotiating with the Big Three to revise current labour contracts in accordance with demands from both Democratic and Republican congressional leaders. Testifying alongside CEOs of the Big Three before the Senate banking committee on November 18, UAW president Ron Gettelfinger said: “Between 2005 and 2008 we have lost 47,000 workers at GM and we have virtually eliminated our jobs banks [which provide for laid-off auto workers to receive 95% of their weekly wages] at all three companies. We had to take the political heat for these kinds of decisions, but as a union leadership we are proud to work with these companies.”

We may not experience an economic crisis as devastating as the Great Depression of the 1930s, when unemployment in the developed capitalist countries reached 25-30%. But the capitalists and their politicians will use the current global economic recession to deepen their neoliberal attacks on the livelihoods and social conditions of working people across the world. The only way for working people ultimately to defend themselves from this is to organise into a mass movement to take political power out of the hands of the capitalist financial oligarchy, establish a working people’s government and use it to reorganise the economy along socialist lines.

What the Obama victory shows

Barry Sheppard
Direct Action
Issue 7, December 2008


As has been widely noted, the election of an African-American as president of the United States is an historic event. This is true irrespective of the politics and perspectives of Barack Obama. That a black family will occupy the White House, which was built by black slaves, is a powerful symbol.

The four-hundred-year history of African-Americans in the United States spans the time of slavery, the Civil War and Radical Reconstruction, the reaction beginning in the 1870s that instituted the Jim Crow segregation system through terror, and the civil rights struggles of the 1950s and ‘60s that overthrew Jim Crow, up to the present.

There is no question that without the victory of the civil rights movement, which liberated the South from legal apartheid, and its effect throughout the North, no black person could have been elected to the US presidency. It was this victory that changed over time the way black Americans are viewed by whites, to the extent that tens of millions of whites felt able to vote a black person into the country’s highest public office.

On election night, when it was clear that Obama had won, there were celebrations among African-Americans everywhere. TV shots showed many in tears of joy. The following day, my next-door neighbour, who is black and somewhat conservative, greeted me with the Black Power fist salute, and said: “I never thought I would see this in my lifetime!”

It is always difficult to see underlying trends through the distorting lens of capitalist elections, especially in the US with its system of two openly capitalist parties holding nearly identical views. But I think certain things are discernable. The first is what I have already alluded to, the diminution of racist attitudes among many whites. Polls showed this was more pronounced among young whites. While Asians, Latinos and especially African-Americans (by 95%) voted for Obama, without making important inroads among whites he would have lost. The second is renewed confidence among black Americans that they can change things. Whether this manifests itself in new struggles in the months and years ahead remains to be seen.

It should be noted that while racism among whites has diminished, racism remains powerful, and racial oppression remains institutionalised throughout the country. Obama won 53% of the vote, smaller than would be expected given the low level of support to outgoing President George Bush’s discredited administration and the extent of Democratic Party victories in the congressional elections. Whites are increasingly polarised on race.

By institutionalised racial oppression, I mean the facts of housing and job discrimination, and the resulting disparities between blacks and whites in education, unemployment, life expectancy, average income and so forth. It is these sorts of issues a new black liberation movement would have to take up, issues which relate to the whole working class.

The third thing I think we should note in the election is the impact of the deepening economic downturn. It was this that swung many white workers, who never thought they would vote for a black person, to vote for Obama against Republican candidate John McCain. They hope that a Democrat will do better on the economy than Bush has. This factor, which only began to be reflected in polls at the end of the campaign, tipped the scales in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and the Southern states of Virginia and North Carolina, as well as others. High hopes have been raised among black, Latino, Asian and white workers that an Obama administration will do something to help them as the economy spirals downward.

The economic crisis and the Wall Street bank bailouts have enraged working people. It is a kind of primitive radicalisation, a new sense that something is very wrong with the system. But this is causing a sharp polarisation among whites, too. McCain tapped into this with his own denunciations of “Wall Street” and “the government” coupled with thinly disguised, but loud and shrill, appeals to racism.

That racism remains deep among many millions of whites has been reflected in expressions of deep anger that Obama was elected, some documented on mainstream TV. This is especially true in the South, but has manifested across the country. There have been “hundreds” of incidents of cross burnings, racial epithets scrawled on cars and homes, Black figures hung from nooses, and other incidents according the Southern Poverty Law Center, which tracks hate crimes, since the election.

Some of these included the admission by four North Carolina State University students that they spray-painted “let’s shoot that nigger in the head.” In a rural general store in Maine, a sign read “Osama Obama Shotgun Pool,” where people could make bets as to the day Obama would be killed (“Stabbing, shooting, roadside bombs, they all count”). Second graders on a school bus in Idaho chanted “assassinate Obama”.

Most incidents have occurred in the South, including one church marquee that denounced Obama as a “Muslim” who will install a “wicked” government. The South was governed by a wing of the Democratic Party, up until the mid-1960s, known as the “Dixiecrats”. They enforced the Jim Crow system and were part of Franklin Roosevelt’s coalition in the 1930s and ‘40s, supporting his “social-democratic” economic policies in return for his support of Jim Crow.

But when the national Democratic Party came out for civil rights legislation under the impact of the black movement in the mid-1960s, the Dixiecrats became Republicans. Many whites deeply resented that the federal government had “imposed” on them the dissolution of apartheid. Beginning with Richard Nixon in 1968, the Republicans launched their “Southern strategy” to appeal to white racists there, which helped them win national as well as state and local elections. The “Southern strategy” took some blows in this election, with Virginia and North Carolina defecting to Obama.

With the new confidence among blacks and other non-whites, in the context of the “primitive radicalisation” of tens of millions of workers including whites, I believe we are entering a new period. How long this gestation period lasts before we see new explosive struggles remains to be seen. It took from the stock market crash of 1929 until the first battles in 1934 before there was an upsurge of workers’ struggles in the 1930s.

We have seen one positive step forward in the context of a defeat registered in the election. Proposition 8, an amendment to the state constitution in California that took away the right to marry for gay men and lesbians that the California State Supreme Court had affirmed earlier in the year, passed by 52% in a referendum. But gays, lesbians and their supporters didn’t take this lying down. There were immediate militant demonstrations across the state, organised by amateurs through the internet. On November 15, there were some 300 demonstrations in cities in every state, often targeting the Mormon church which poured tens of millions into the effort to pass Proposition 8.

The effect of these mass actions was to cause a split in the Prop 8 forces between the openly anti-gay groups and the covert ones, who began to bleat that they were not anti-gay rights in general but only on this issue. (The “moderate” ads for Prop 8 appealed to fears that gays and lesbians seek to “convert” children to homosexuality.) Does this militant outpouring reflect a new mood of confidence that the powers that be can be opposed in a meaningful way? I hope so.

2008年12月3日

Thailand - A Second "Coup for the Rich"

Giles Ji Ungpakorn
December 02, 2008
Giles Ji Ungpakorn is a Thai socialist and a member of the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok. He is the author of the book "A Coup for the Rich - Thailand's Political Crisis", published in 2007.

http://www.pcpthai.org/autopagev3/show_page.php?group_id=1&auto_id=37&topic_id=807&topic_no=18&page=1&gaction=on
Today the Constitutional Courts dissolved the democratically elected governing party in Thailand for the second time, forcing the Government to resign. This follows the refusal of the Armed Forces and the Police to follow government instructions to clear the two international airports blocked by armed PAD Fascists. The Royalist alliance against the government are made up of the Fascist PAD, the Military, the Police, the Judiciary, the mainstream Media, the "Democrat Party", most middle class academics and The Queen. They are all behind this judicial coup. A leading "Democrat Party" MP is one of the leaders of the illegal blockade of the two airports. The Yellow-shirted PAD have "armed guards" which have repeatedly shot at opponents. They constantly use violence and now demand "joint patrols" with the Police. The PAD have constantly broken the law, and yet they are "untouchable". On the rare occasion when PAD leaders are forced to attend court, they are given bail and allowed to go back and commit the same crimes over and over again.

The majority of the Thai population, who are poor, face a Double Whammy. First, the elite Royalist are doing everything possible to take away their basic democratic rights. Secondly, mass job-losses are occurring among workers in the tourist industry as a result of the airport blockade. Jobs in agriculture and electronics are also affected and of course we are faced with the serious World Economic Crisis. The elites do not care if the Thai economy is trashed and Thailand returns to a poor Third World nation. In such nations the elites continue to live the same lives as the rich in the Developed World. The PAD protestors are middle-class extremists who do not have to go to work, hence their prolonged protests.

We are constantly told by the conservatives that the poor are "too stupid to deserve the right to vote". The army staged a coup in 2006 and re-wrote the Constitution in order to reduce the democratic space and also to absolve themselves of any wrong-doing. The electorate have repeatedly voted in overwhelming numbers for the government party, whether it be Thai Rak Thai or Peoples Power Party. Now Peoples Power politicians are moving to the new Pua Thai Party. Will fair election be held? Or will the elites engineer a "fix" to make sure that their people win?

What is the root cause of this crisis?
The root cause of this crisis is not the corruption of the Thaksin government in the past. It isn't about vote-buying, good governance, civil rights or the Rule of Law. Politicians of all parties, including the Democrats, are known to buy votes. The elites, whether Politicians, Civil Servants or Military, have a history of gross corruption. Even when they don't break the law, they have become rich on the backs of Thai workers and small farmers. The Democrat Party is stuffed with such millionaires.

Ironically, the Thai Rak Thai party was helping to reduce the importance of vote-buying because it was the first party in decades to have real policies which were beneficial to the poor. They introduced a universal health care scheme and Keynesian Village Funds. People voted on the basis of such policies. The Democrats and the conservative elites hate the alliance between Thaksin's business party and the poor. They hate the idea that a government was using public funds to improve the lives of the poor. This is why the anti-government alliance is against democracy. The PAD have suggested reducing the number of elected MPs and a recipe to do away with the principle of "one person one vote". So the root cause of the problem is the conservative elite's contempt for the poor and their contempt for democracy. They are prepared to break the law when it suits them.

What is the solution?
Business leaders and the Royalist elites are demanding an un-elected National Government. The Democrat Party leader has "volunteered" to be the Prime Minister! Such a National Government would complete the judicial coup for the rich. It would be a victory for the PAD and a defeat for the electorate.

The Red Shirts, who are organised by government politicians, are the only hope for Thai democracy. They have now become a genuine pro-democracy mass movement of the poor. This is what is meant by "Civil Society", not the PAD fascists. Thai academia fails to grasp this basic fact. But the Red Shirts are not a "pure force". Many have illusion is ex-Prime Minister Thaksin. They overlook his gross abuse of human rights in the South and the War on Drugs. But these human rights issues are also totally ignored by the PAD and their friends.

Throughout this 3 year crisis, the majority of the Thai NGO movement (especially the NGO-Coordinating Committee) has failed to support democracy. Many welcomed the 2006 military coup. Many supported the military Constitution. Now they are either silent or are echoing the demands of the Army Chief, who said last week that the government should resign. At no point have they attempted to build a pro-democracy social movement. Many believe that the poor are "uneducated and lack enough information to vote". The honourable examples are the Midnight University in Chiang-Mai, some sections of the labour movement, groups of new generation NGO activists and Turn Left.

The economic crisis
Millions of jobs are being destroyed by the World Economic Crisis and the unrest in Thai society. People are being driven back into poverty. Yet the Democrat Party, the Military, the conservative elites and the mainstream NGO movement do not have a clue or do not care one jot about the necessary policies to defend the living standards of the poor. They make chants about the King's Sufficiency Economy and the need for Fiscal Discipline. In other words, the poor must trim their spending and learn to live with their poverty while the rich continue to live in luxury.

We desperately need massive government spending on infrastructure, job protection and a serious expansion of welfare. Value Added Tax should be reduced or abolished and higher direct taxes should be levied on all the rich elites without any exceptions. The bloated military budget should be cut. Wages should be raised among workers. Poor farmers should be protected. This will only happen in a climate of genuine democracy. This is why we must oppose this second "Coup for the Rich".